In response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference-in-difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.

中文翻译：

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提高对非正常移民风险的认识：来自几内亚的准实验证据

越来越多的证据表明，非正规移民在从西非到欧洲的旅途中受到伤害，国际组织、民间社会组织和政府扩大了宣传活动，作为提高对非正规移民风险认识的工具。活动旨在打击走私者的错误信息并促进安全的移民决策。尽管干预措施的数量不断增加，但关于此类运动的影响和有效性的经验证据有限。基于差异设计，本研究调查了移动影院和社区讨论干预对 2019 年几内亚北部潜在非正规移民的认知、知识和意图的影响。结果表明，参加活动的潜在移民更有可能表现出意识提高，而不太可能报告有不定期移民的强烈意愿。虽然风险认知的相对重要性及其对移民流动的影响仍不清楚，但研究结果提供了证据支持这样一种假设，即风险意识可能是潜在非正规移民决策过程中的一个相关因素。虽然运动在某些情况下可能是一种有效的工具，但效果规模凸显了政策制定者保持现实期望的必要性。调查结果提供了证据支持这样一种假设，即风险意识可能是潜在非正常移民决策过程中的一个相关因素。虽然运动在某些情况下可能是一种有效的工具，但效果规模凸显了政策制定者保持现实期望的必要性。调查结果提供了证据支持这样一种假设，即风险意识可能是潜在非正常移民决策过程中的一个相关因素。虽然运动在某些情况下可能是一种有效的工具，但效果规模凸显了政策制定者保持现实期望的必要性。