This paper investigates the usefulness of accrual-based surpluses for predicting future cash flows and surpluses in the context of the Canadian public sector. We provide evidence that surpluses incrementally enhance the ability of operating cash flows to predict future cash flows and surpluses. Analysis of our accrual quality model illustrates that accrual accounting is useful in the public sector for mitigating the noise in operating cash flows. We also find that decomposing surpluses into operating cash flows and accruals enhances the ability of surpluses to forecast future cash flows and surpluses, indicating that aggregate and disaggregated surpluses are positively related to both relevance and reliability. Our test results do not indicate the presence of conservatism in the Canadian public sector, and confirm that the usefulness of surpluses in making predictions is independent of selected control factors.

本文研究了在加拿大公共部门的背景下，应计盈余预测未来现金流和盈余的有用性。我们提供的证据表明，盈余逐渐增强了经营现金流预测未来现金流和盈余的能力。对我们的应计质量模型的分析表明，应计会计在公共部门中对于减轻经营现金流的噪音很有用。我们还发现，将盈余分解为经营现金流和应计项目可以提高盈余预测未来现金流和盈余的能力，这表明总盈余和分类盈余与相关性和可靠性呈正相关。我们的测试结果并未表明加拿大公共部门存在保守主义，