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Postprocessing of MCMC
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application ( IF 7.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-07 , DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040220-091727
Leah F. South 1 , Marina Riabiz 2, 3 , Onur Teymur 3, 4 , Chris J. Oates 3, 5
Affiliation  

Markov chain Monte Carlo is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is postprocessed and reported is often overlooked. Convergence diagnostics can be used to control bias via burn-in removal, but these do not account for (common) situations where a limited computational budget engenders a bias-variance trade-off. The aim of this article is to review state-of-the-art techniques for postprocessing Markov chain output. Our review covers methods based on discrepancy minimization, which directly address the bias-variance trade-off, as well as general-purpose control variate methods for approximating expected quantities of interest.

中文翻译:


MCMC的后处理

马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛是现代贝叶斯统计的引擎,用于逼近感兴趣的后验量和派生量。尽管如此,如何对马尔可夫链的输出进行后处理和报告的问题经常被忽视。收敛诊断可用于通过消除老化来控制偏差,但这些不能解释有限计算预算导致偏差-方差权衡的(常见)情况。本文的目的是回顾用于后处理马尔可夫链输出的最新技术。我们的评论涵盖了基于差异最小化的方法,这些方法直接解决了偏差-方差权衡,以及用于近似预期感兴趣数量的通用控制变量方法。

更新日期:2022-03-07
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