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Is There a Cap on Longevity? A Statistical Review
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application ( IF 7.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-07 , DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040120-025426
Léo R. Belzile 1 , Anthony C. Davison 2 , Jutta Gampe 3 , Holger Rootzén 4 , Dmitrii Zholud 4
Affiliation  

There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if there is any, to the human life span. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security systems. A central question is whether the endpoint of the underlying lifetime distribution is finite. Recent analyses of data on the oldest human lifetimes have led to competing claims about survival and to some controversy, due in part to incorrect statistical analysis. This article discusses the particularities of such data, outlines correct ways of handling them, and presents suitable models and methods for their analysis. We provide a critical assessment of some earlier work and illustrate the ideas through reanalysis of semisupercentenarian lifetime data. Our analysis suggests that remaining life length after age 109 is exponentially distributed and that any upper limit lies well beyond the highest lifetime yet reliably recorded. Lower limits to 95% confidence intervals for the human life span are about 130 years, and point estimates typically indicate no upper limit at all.

中文翻译:


长寿有上限吗?统计审查

人们对理解人类寿命的极限(如果有的话)有着持续和广泛的兴趣。除了其内在和生物学意义外,老年人生存的变化对社会保障体系的可持续性也有影响。一个中心问题是潜在寿命分布的端点是否是有限的。最近对最古老人类寿命数据的分析导致了关于生存的相互竞争的主张和一些争议,部分原因是统计分析不正确。本文讨论了此类数据的特殊性,概述了处理它们的正确方法,并提出了分析它们的合适模型和方法。我们对一些早期工作进行了批判性评估,并通过对半超百岁寿命数据的重新分析来说明这些想法。我们的分析表明,109 岁之后的剩余寿命呈指数分布,并且任何上限都远远超出了迄今为止可靠记录的最高寿命。人类寿命 95% 置信区间的下限约为 130 年,而点估计通常表明根本没有上限。

更新日期:2022-03-07
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