ABSTRACT

Maize is an essential staple food crop and is vulnerable to diseases. Maize streak disease is one of the serious illnesses that affect maize, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where the disease is endemic. We developed a stochastic epidemic model with three control measure types (mechanical, chemical and preventative) that mitigate the disease. A dynamical system analysis of the deterministic version of the model is provided. The probability of maize streak disease extinction or persistence is determined using the theory of a multi-type branching process. Using these results, the degrees to which these control measures are effective in reducing maize streak disease are considered. It is shown that chemical and mechanical control measures, preferably together, are better than preventive controls in reducing disease prevalence. However, considering the possible negative effects of a chemical control, it is shown that sufficient mechanical control combined with a small degree of each of preventative and chemical control could be the most viable strategy to limit maize streak disease.

摘要

玉米是一种重要的主粮作物，易感染疾病。玉米条纹病是影响玉米的严重疾病之一，特别是在该病流行的撒哈拉以南非洲地区。我们开发了一种随机流行病模型，具有减轻疾病的三种控制措施类型（机械、化学和预防）。提供了模型确定性版本的动态系统分析。使用多类型分枝过程的理论确定玉米条纹病灭绝或持续存在的概率。使用这些结果，考虑这些控制措施在减少玉米条斑病方面的有效程度。结果表明，化学和机械控制措施，最好是一起使用，在降低疾病流行率方面优于预防控制措施。然而，