On the evaluation of climate change impact models,WIREs Climate Change

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On the evaluation of climate change impact models
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-03 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.772
Thorsten Wagener _{1,

2,

3} , Robert Reinecke ₁ , Francesca Pianosi _{2,

3}

Affiliation

In-depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation-independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario-based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.

中文翻译：

关于气候变化影响模型的评价

在制定适应战略和设计适合未来条件的基础设施时，需要深入了解气候变化的潜在影响，以指导决策者和政策制定者。需要将潜在的未来气候条件转化为感兴趣的变量的影响模型，以在气候变化及其对不同部门的影响之间建立因果关系。最近的调查表明，验证此类模型（并因此证明其使用合理性）的主要策略很大程度上依赖于通过将模型模拟与历史观察结果进行比较来评估模型模拟的准确性。我们认为，这种比较是必要且有价值的，但不足以实现对气候变化影响模型的全面评估。我们认为，一个互补的、很大程度上独立于观察的、需要模型评估步骤以确保模型行为的更高透明度和基于场景的分析的更大稳健性。此步骤应解决以下四个问题：（1）建模的主导过程控制是否与我们的系统感知相匹配？(2) 我的模型对变化强迫的敏感性是否符合预期？(3) 建模的决策杠杆是否显示出足够的影响力？(4) 我们能否在整个投影范围内归因不确定性来源？我们认为，全局敏感性分析能够以结构化的方式调查模型对多个输入的联合变化的响应，为全面解决所有四个问题提供了一种连贯的方法。这种额外的模型评估将增强利益相关者对模型预测的信心，因此，

更新日期：2022-03-03

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