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Estimating the economic impact of the white root rot disease on the Malaysian rubber plantations
Forest Policy and Economics ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102707
Oladokun Nafiu Olaniyi 1 , Kenneth R. Szulczyk 2
Affiliation  

Research indicates that white root rot disease can inflict severe economic damage on the Malaysian rubber industry, which is caused by the fungus, Rigidoporus microporus. Accordingly, the economic impact of this disease is assessed by the partial equilibrium model, called the Malaysian Agriculture and Plantation Greenhouse Gas Model. The model represents the major commodities of the Malaysian agricultural markets and predicts market prices and quantities between 2023 and 2063. Although Malaysia has a million hectares of rubber plantations in 2018, the results indicate the rubber plantations could lose 400,000 ha to the oil palm plantations. Furthermore, a slow 5% fungal growth rate could infect half of the remaining stands of rubber trees. The oil palms help buffer the losses from the fungus since Rigidoporus microporus cannot infect oil palm trees. The loss of the rubber trees leads to rising natural rubber prices that decrease natural rubber exports and increase natural rubber imports. As the fungal infection growth rate increases, the natural rubber price rises further while the trade balance worsens. In addition, the rubber plantation owners can eradicate the fungus by paying an annual treatment cost per hectare. A higher treatment cost leads to the landowners treating fewer trees.



中文翻译:

估计白根腐病对马来西亚橡胶种植园的经济影响

研究表明,白根腐病会对马来西亚橡胶工业造成严重的经济损失,这是由真菌,Rigidoporus microporus引起的。因此,这种疾病的经济影响是通过部分平衡模型评估的,称为马来西亚农业和种植园温室气体模型。该模型代表了马来西亚农业市场的主要商品,并预测了 2023 年至 2063 年之间的市场价格和数量。尽管马来西亚在 2018 年拥有 100 万公顷的橡胶种植园,但结果表明橡胶种植园可能会因油棕种植园而损失 400,000 公顷。此外,缓慢的 5% 的真菌生长速度可能会感染剩余的一半橡胶树。油棕有助于缓冲真菌的损失,因为Rigidoporus microporus不能感染油棕树。橡胶树的损失导致天然橡胶价格上涨,从而减少天然橡胶出口并增加天然橡胶进口。随着真菌感染增长率的增加,天然橡胶价格进一步上涨,而贸易平衡恶化。此外,橡胶园所有者可以通过支付每公顷每年的处理费用来根除真菌。更高的处理成本导致土地所有者处理更少的树木。

更新日期:2022-03-03
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