Tail-dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver–response relationships,Ecology Letters

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Tail-dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver–response relationships
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-04 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13991
Jonathan A Walter ₁ , Max C N Castorani ₁ , Tom W Bell ₂ , Lawrence W Sheppard _{3,

4} , Kyle C Cavanaugh ₅ , Daniel C Reuman ₃

Affiliation

Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, ‘tail-dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment.

中文翻译：

尾部相关的空间同步源于非线性的驾驶员响应关系

空间同步可能是尾部相关的，也就是说，当种群丰富时空间同步性比稀缺时更强，反之亦然。这里，“尾部相关”源自具有由相对低值组成的下尾部和由相对高值组成的上尾部的分布。我们提出了一个关于环境驱动因素的分布和相关结构如何通过非线性响应转化为尾部相关空间同步的一般理论，并检验了加州海岸线巨型海带理论预测的经验证据。在庇护区，当波浪相对强烈时，海带会同步下降（下尾依赖性），因为低于一定高度的波浪对海带的损害很小。相反，在暴露区域，海带主要通过导致共同恢复（上尾依赖性）的平静时期来同步。我们发现尾部依赖同步的地理证据，这有助于构建区域人口复原力：人口异步下降的地区可能对干扰更具弹性，因为残余种群有利于重建。

更新日期：2022-03-04

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