Substantial renewable energy (RE) cost reductions have raised the prospect of a subsidy-free RE era of the energy transition. The envisaged policy cornerstones of this era are carbon markets, which create economic incentives for sustaining further RE deployment. However, this overlooks that exposing RE to market risks and increasing interest rates would result in substantially higher financing cost, which in turn would lead to much steeper carbon price paths. The resulting political pressure may provoke a price-depressing regulatory intervention, disrupting further RE expansion. Here we conceptualize this feedback and infer indicators for the risk of such an intervention. By quantifying these indicators for the European Union, we find that increased financing cost could double carbon prices in the long term, halve the rate of renewable capacity deployment in the next 15 years and considerably increase the profits of fossil fuel plants. This implies a substantial risk of pushback that policymakers should safeguard against.

可再生能源 (RE) 成本的大幅降低提高了能源转型中无补贴可再生能源时代的前景。这个时代设想的政策基石是碳市场，它为维持可再生能源的进一步部署创造了经济激励。然而，这忽略了将可再生能源暴露于市场风险和提高利率将导致融资成本大幅上升，进而导致碳价格路径更加陡峭。由此产生的政治压力可能会引发压低价格的监管干预，从而扰乱可再生能源的进一步扩张。在这里，我们将这种反馈概念化并推断出这种干预风险的指标。通过量化欧盟的这些指标，我们发现从长远来看，增加的融资成本可能会使碳价格翻倍，在未来 15 年将可再生能源产能部署率减半，并大幅增加化石燃料工厂的利润。这意味着政策制定者应防范的巨大阻力风险。