Identifying historical patterns of fluctuation in climate change skepticism guides researchers, policy makers, and science communicators in efforts to catalyze change in the future. We analyzed data from 25 nationally representative polls collected in Australia from 2009 to 2019 (N = 20,655). Although it remains concerningly high, climate skepticism trended down in that 10-year period, particularly among conservatives. Multilevel analyses identified two variables that stood out as being relevant in explaining that trajectory. First, climate change skepticism was positively associated with support for conservative political parties in national polls. Second, climate change skepticism was negatively associated with the annual global temperatures the previous year. There was little evidence that climate change beliefs were associated with economic variables or with seasonal variations in temperature. Furthermore, there was only weak evidence that climate change beliefs were associated with national temperatures. This suggests that global temperatures in the previous year are impactful because of their informational value (as a communication heuristic for the urgency and immediacy of climate change) more so than for their experiential value (in the sense of people actually experiencing warmer weather). Importantly, the effect of previous global temperature was particularly pronounced among those with the strongest levels of skepticism: political conservatives. This suggests that rising global annual temperatures have the power to update beliefs among those most in need of converting to the climate cause.

确定气候变化怀疑论波动的历史模式可以指导研究人员、政策制定者和科学传播者努力促进未来的变化。我们分析了 2009 年至 2019 年在澳大利亚收集的 25 个具有全国代表性的民意调查数据（N = 20,655)。尽管它仍然很高，但在这 10 年期间，气候怀疑论呈下降趋势，尤其是在保守派中。多层次分析确定了两个与解释该轨迹相关的变量。首先，对气候变化的怀疑与全国民意调查中对保守政党的支持呈正相关。其次，对气候变化的怀疑与前一年的全球年度气温呈负相关。几乎没有证据表明气候变化信念与经济变量或温度的季节性变化有关。此外，只有微弱的证据表明气候变化信念与国家气温有关。这表明，前一年的全球气温之所以具有影响力，是因为它们的信息价值（作为气候变化紧迫性和即时性的沟通启发式）比其经验价值（在人们实际经历温暖天气的意义上）更重要。重要的是，先前全球气温的影响在那些怀疑态度最强烈的人中尤其明显：政治保守派。这表明，全球年度气温上升有能力更新那些最需要转变为气候原因的人的信念。先前全球气温的影响在那些持最强烈怀疑态度的人中尤其明显：政治保守派。这表明，全球年度气温上升有能力更新那些最需要转变为气候原因的人的信念。先前全球气温的影响在那些持最强烈怀疑态度的人中尤其明显：政治保守派。这表明，全球年度气温上升有能力更新那些最需要转变为气候原因的人的信念。