This study meta-analytically examined the effect of macro-level concentrated disadvantage on individual-level recidivism. Search results indicated research to date is designed to assess the incremental effect of concentrated disadvantage on recidivism above other risk factors. Using a multilevel random effects model, we found the estimated incremental effect of concentrated disadvantage was nonsignificant (log odds ratio = 0.03, p = .15, k = 48). However, effects varied by recidivism and offense type. Concentrated disadvantage does not add incremental utility when predicting general recidivism, but it does add incremental utility when assessing arrests (especially drug arrests) and violent reconvictions. Although individual-level risk factors and markers seem to explain most of the relationship between concentrated disadvantage and reoffending, concentrated disadvantage should not be summarily dismissed as irrelevant to recidivism. The overrepresentation of disadvantaged neighborhoods among the justice-involved—and the overrepresentation of the justice-involved in disadvantaged neighborhoods—requires further research on the disadvantage–recidivism relationship.

本研究荟萃分析地检验了宏观层面集中劣势对个人层面累犯的影响。搜索结果表明，迄今为止的研究旨在评估集中劣势对累犯的增量影响，而不是其他风险因素。使用多级随机效应模型，我们发现集中劣势的估计增量效应不显着（log 优势比 = 0.03，p = .15，k= 48)。然而，影响因累犯和犯罪类型而异。在预测一般累犯时，集中劣势不会增加效用，但在评估逮捕（尤其是毒品逮捕）和暴力重新定罪时确实会增加效用。尽管个人层面的风险因素和标志物似乎可以解释集中不利条件与再犯罪之间的大部分关系，但集中不利条件不应被草率地认为与累犯无关。参与司法的弱势社区的过度代表——以及参与司法的弱势社区的过度代表——需要进一步研究弱势-累犯的关系。