What connection exists between protests and coup attempts? Although recent studies have revealed that the former incites the latter, they generally do not consider international factors. We contend that post-Cold War nonviolent protests have promoted coup attempts. With sentiment in the international community turning against coups following the end of the Cold War, coup organizers have had to portray their actions as democratic. Launching a coup attempt during ongoing nonviolent protests became a convincing method to prove democratic bona fides. This is because the international community favors nonviolence, and it signals that the emerging regime will not have extreme preferences and will keep order. Conversely, the international community does not regard violent protests as legitimate, and staging a coup attempt during violent protests will not enable a military to claim legitimacy. This argument is tested through statistical analysis and by using the 2011 Egyptian coup as a case study. As expected, the results indicate that the impact of protests on coup attempts varies depending on (1) whether those protests are violent or nonviolent, and on (2) the period. Specifically, only the nonviolent protests in the post-Cold War era prompt coup attempts meaningfully.

抗议和政变企图之间存在什么联系？虽然最近的研究表明前者煽动后者，但一般不考虑国际因素。我们认为冷战后的非暴力抗议推动了政变企图。随着冷战结束后国际社会的情绪转向反对政变，政变组织者不得不将他们的行动描绘成民主的。在持续的非暴力抗议活动中发动政变企图成为证明民主诚意的令人信服的方法。这是因为国际社会崇尚非暴力，这表明新兴政权不会有极端偏好，会保持秩序。相反，国际社会并不认为暴力抗议是合法的，在暴力抗议期间发动政变企图不会使军方宣称其合法性。这一论点通过统计分析和 2011 年埃及政变作为案例研究得到验证。正如预期的那样，结果表明抗议对政变企图的影响取决于（1）这些抗议是暴力的还是非暴力的，以及（2）时期。具体而言，只有后冷战时代的非暴力抗议才有意义地促使政变企图。