In a preregistered experiment, we presented participants with information about the safety of traveling during a deadly pandemic and during a migration trip using five different sources (a news article, a family member, an official organization, someone with personal experience, and the travel organizer) and four different verbal descriptions of the likelihood of safety (very likely, likely, unlikely, and very unlikely). We found that both for the pandemic and migration contexts, judgments about the likelihood of safely traveling and decisions to travel were most strongly influenced by information from the respective official organizations and that participants also indicated greater willingness to share information from official organizations with others. These results are consistent with the established finding that expert sources are more persuasive. However, we also found that, regardless of source, participants thought that it would be safe to travel even when told that it was unlikely or very unlikely to be safe. Additionally, participants did not discriminate between the grades of likelihood description (such as between likely and very likely or between unlikely and very unlikely), suggesting that in the contexts examined directionality matters much more than attempts to communicate more fine-grained likelihood information with verbal phrases. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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这次旅行安全吗？根据不同来源的信息判断大流行中的人身安全。

在一项预先注册的实验中，我们使用五种不同的来源（一篇新闻文章、一位家庭成员、一个官方组织、有个人经历的人和旅行组织者）向参与者提供了有关在致命大流行期间和移民旅行期间旅行安全的信息) 以及对安全可能性的四种不同的口头描述（非常可能、可能、不太可能和非常不可能）。我们发现，在大流行和移民背景下，对安全旅行可能性的判断和旅行决定最受来自各自官方组织的信息的影响，并且参与者还表示更愿意与他人分享来自官方组织的信息。这些结果与专家来源更具说服力的既定发现一致。然而，我们还发现，无论来源如何，参与者都认为旅行是安全的，即使被告知不太可能或不太可能安全。此外，参与者没有区分可能性描述的等级（例如在可能和非常可能之间或在不太可能和非常不可能之间），这表明在所检查的上下文中，方向性比尝试用语言传达更细粒度的可能性信息更重要短语。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2022 APA，保留所有权利）。参与者没有区分可能性描述的等级（例如在可能和非常可能之间或在不太可能和非常不可能之间），这表明在所检查的上下文中，方向性比试图用口头短语传达更细粒度的可能性信息更重要。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2022 APA，保留所有权利）。参与者没有区分可能性描述的等级（例如在可能和非常可能之间或在不太可能和非常不可能之间），这表明在所检查的上下文中，方向性比试图用口头短语传达更细粒度的可能性信息更重要。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2022 APA，保留所有权利）。