Crime Science ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-02-22 , DOI: 10.1186/s40163-022-00164-1 Liam Quinn 1 , Joseph Clare 1 , Jade Lindley 1 , Frank Morgan 2
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Objective
To address the gap in the literature and using a novel open-source intelligence web-scraping approach, this paper investigates the longitudinal relationships between availability, value, and disposability, and stealing counts of specific makes and models of gaming consoles.
Methods
Using data from Western Australia (2012–2019) and focusing on specific makes/models of gaming consoles, the relationships between product-specific stealing counts, availability, value, and disposability were examined using time series and cross-sectional analyses.
Results
Support was found for a positive relationship between the changing disposability of specific makes/models of gaming consoles over their lifecycle with corresponding stealing counts, above and beyond changes in availability and value. However, when these attributes were analysed statically, both disposability and value were important.
Conclusions
The results highlight the importance of measuring correlates of ‘hot products’ longitudinally to better understand offenders’ target selection preferences over time—with important implications for theft risk assessment and crime prevention policy and practice. These findings also provide support for the use of similar open-source intelligence web-scraping strategies as a suitable technique for capturing time-specific proxies for product-specific value and disposability.
中文翻译：
通过可处置性、可用性和价值的变化解释犯罪者对特定产品的纵向目标选择：一种开源情报网络抓取方法
客观的
为了解决文献中的空白并使用一种新颖的开源情报网络抓取方法，本文研究了可用性、价值和可处置性之间的纵向关系，以及窃取特定品牌和型号游戏机的计数。
方法
使用西澳大利亚州（2012-2019）的数据，并重点关注游戏机的特定品牌/型号，使用时间序列和横截面分析来检查特定产品的盗窃数量、可用性、价值和可处置性之间的关系。
结果
人们发现，特定品牌/型号的游戏机在其生命周期内的可处置性的变化与相应的盗窃数量之间存在正相关关系，高于可用性和价值的变化。然而，当对这些属性进行静态分析时，可处置性和价值都很重要。
结论
结果强调了纵向衡量“热门产品”相关性的重要性，以更好地了解犯罪者随时间变化的目标选择偏好，这对盗窃风险评估以及犯罪预防政策和实践具有重要意义。这些发现还为使用类似的开源情报网络抓取策略作为一种合适的技术来捕获特定时间的产品特定价值和可处置性代理提供了支持。
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