Estimating the oil recovery potential using CO₂ (CO₂-EOR) at a national level is resource-intensive at a scale that is not usually available. The aim of this study is two-fold: first, the potential for CO₂ storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in Colombia is evaluated; and, second, the results from two different calculation methods (stochastic and deterministic) are compared when there is lack of information for a quick screening of suitable oilfields. The deterministic approach is based on expert insight and data found in the literature; while, the stochastic uses statistical data from two different databases (commercial and simulation-based results) to run a Monte Carlo simulation. Potential estimates based on typical values from the literature (deterministic) results in 277 MMbbl (million barrels) of oil and 36 Mt (million tonnes) of CO₂. In contrast, a probabilistic-based method using a wide simulation database (stochastic) provides higher values of 690 MMbbl of oil and 203 Mt of CO₂. Results using simulation-based and commercial project data also show significant differences. The volume of CO₂ injected, which affects the recovery factor, is usually 100% hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV) in simulation, while commercial projects have nowadays regularly increased from 30% to exceed the 100% threshold. A combination of these approaches avoids a resource-intensive estimation process and effectively provides a more realistic picture of the feasibility of applying CO₂-EOR technologies.

Thematic collection: This article is part of the Geoscience for CO₂ storage collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/geoscience-for-co2-storage

_{在国家层面使用 CO 2} (CO ₂ -EOR)估算石油采收潜力是资源密集型的，其规模通常无法获得。本研究的目的有两个：第一，CO _2的潜力评估哥伦比亚的储存和提高石油采收率（EOR）；其次，在缺乏快速筛选合适油田的信息时，比较两种不同计算方法（随机和确定）的结果。确定性方法基于专家的见解和文献中的数据；同时，随机变量使用来自两个不同数据库（商业和基于模拟的结果）的统计数据来运行蒙特卡罗模拟。基于文献中的典型值（确定性）的潜在估计结果为 277 MMbbl（百万桶）石油和 36 Mt（百万吨）CO ₂。相比之下，使用广泛模拟数据库（随机）的基于概率的方法提供了更高的值，即 690 MMbbl 石油和 203 Mt CO ₂. 使用基于模拟和商业项目数据的结果也显示出显着差异。在模拟中，影响采收率的 CO ₂注入量通常为 100% 烃孔体积 (HCPV)，而如今商业项目经常从 30% 增加到超过 100% 的阈值。这些方法的组合避免了资源密集型估算过程，并有效地提供了应用 CO ₂ -EOR 技术可行性的更现实的图景。

专题合集：本文是地球科学 CO ₂储存合集的一部分，可在以下网址获取：https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/geoscience-for-co2-storage