We develop an analytical framework to examine an agency's optimal grassland easement acquisition while accounting for landowners’ optimal decisions under uncertainty in both conversion and conservation returns. We derive the value of “wait and see” (i.e., neither convert nor ease grassland) for landowners and find that grassland-to-cropland conversion probability and easement value vary in opposing directions when “wait and see” is preferred, indicating that a larger conversion probability does not necessarily imply a higher easement value. Our analysis shows that when conservation funds can be flexibly allocated across periods then the agency's optimal acquisition can be readily achieved by sorting land tracts according to their owners’ optimal choices. When funds cannot be flexibly allocated across periods, we examine both a rational agency's and a myopic agency's decision problems. An acquisition index is developed to facilitate optimal easement acquisition.

中文翻译：

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具有不确定转换和保护回报的草地地役权评估和获取

我们开发了一个分析框架来检查机构的最佳草地地役权获取，同时考虑土地所有者在转换和保护回报的不确定性下的最佳决策。我们推导出土地所有者的“观望”值（即既不改造也不缓解草地），发现当“观望”为首选时，草地到农田的转化概率和地役权值呈相反方向变化，表明较大的转换概率并不一定意味着较高的地役权价值。我们的分析表明，当保护资金可以跨时期灵活分配时，机构的最优获取可以很容易地通过根据所有者的最优选择对土地进行分类来实现。当资金不能跨期灵活分配时，我们研究了理性机构和短视机构的决策问题。开发了一个获取索引以促进最佳地役权获取。