Climate change has led to increasing global air temperatures. In the field of crop cultivation, long-term high temperatures (heatwaves) during the rice-growing season might increase the risk of high-temperature damage to rice, which might result in reductions to the yield and quality of rice. In this study, a hybrid forecast model consisting of a combined paddy field heat balance model and a meteorological forecast model is proposed for predicting 1-day-ahead water temperatures as an alert system for high-temperature damage to paddy fields, with resolution in terms of hours. The results show close agreement between the measured and predicted water temperatures, and the high-temperature alert accuracy was 88.5%. Additionally, the climate resilience of paddy fields was investigated by using the rising annual temperatures due to climate change. The observations indicate that while paddy fields are sensitive to the climate, their climate resilience can be improved through artificial measures. Farmers and managers of paddy fields can thus be made aware of the water temperatures of the paddy fields in advance to enable reasonable management of water resources and avoid high-temperature damages caused by extreme weather conditions.

中文翻译：

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水稻水温预测混合模型开发作为高温损害预警系统

气候变化导致全球气温升高。在农作物种植领域，水稻生长季节的长期高温（热浪）可能会增加水稻高温危害的风险，从而导致水稻产量和品质下降。本研究提出了一种由稻田热平衡模型和气象预报模型组成的混合预报模型，用于预测前1天的水温，作为稻田高温危害的预警系统，分辨率为小时。结果表明，实测水温与预测水温非常吻合，高温预警准确率为88.5%。此外，利用气候变化导致的年气温上升，研究了稻田的气候恢复力。观察结果表明，虽然稻田对气候很敏感，但可以通过人为措施提高稻田的气候适应能力。从而使农民和稻田经营者提前了解稻田的水温，合理管理水资源，避免极端天气条件造成的高温损害。