ABSTRACT

We present a simple simulation model whose purpose is to explore qualitatively and heuristically the effects that agrochemical subsidies could have on the type of decisions farmers make about their plots (keeping other variables fixed). We use elements of Chayanovian thinking and ecological complexity as a basis, considering that this decision is made by families with heterogeneous preferences in a context with a dynamic that, on the one hand, is non-linear for ecological cycles, and, on the other hand, is chaotic in terms of the interaction with the market. The model describes the relationship between the ecological-productive potential or capacity of a plot and the total production, as well as the effect of management (agroecological or agrochemical) on the ecological capacity. We explore the effect of agrochemical subsidies on this decision and discuss the consequences of these public policy instruments on the lives of farming families. The model shows that by using agrochemicals, both the economy and the ecological balance of the plot enter an unstable pattern with harmful long-term consequences, as there could be a significant reduction in household savings. The same effect is observed on production, since the ecological capacity tends to decrease throughout the simulation.

摘要

我们提出了一个简单的模拟模型，其目的是定性和启发式地探索农用化学品补贴可能对农民对其地块做出的决策类型的影响（保持其他变量不变）。我们使用 Chayanovian 思维和生态复杂性的元素作为基础，考虑到这一决定是由具有不同偏好的家庭在具有动态的环境中做出的，一方面，对于生态循环来说是非线性的，另一方面手，在与市场的互动方面是混乱的。该模型描述了地块的生态生产潜力或容量与总产量之间的关系，以及管理（农业生态或农业化学）对生态容量的影响。我们探讨了农用化学品补贴对这一决定的影响，并讨论了这些公共政策工具对农民家庭生活的影响。该模型表明，通过使用农用化学品，该地块的经济和生态平衡都进入了一种不稳定的模式，具有有害的长期后果，因为家庭储蓄可能会显着减少。在生产中观察到相同的效果，因为在整个模拟过程中生态容量趋于下降。