Coastal cities and their natural environments are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially sea-level rise (SLR). Hard coastal defences play a key role in protecting at-risk urban coastal populations from flooding and erosion, but coastal ecosystems also play important roles in the overall sustainability and resilience of cities and urban centres by contributing to coastal protection. Conserving coastal ecosystems and maximising their resilience will ensure that urban coastal communities can continue to benefit from ecosystem services and improve their adaptive capacity to cope with adverse impacts in the future. Using the hyper-urbanised coast of Singapore as a case study, we modelled the resilience of coastal wetlands to SLR and integrated resilience in conservation planning. We found that the responses of coastal habitats to rising sea level vary across the modelling periods. While there is a slight net gain in the extent of mangrove forests and tidal flats by the end of the century due to potential habitat conversion, the existing habitats will experience a loss in coverage. Highly modified coastlines associated with urbanisation impede the ability of existing wetlands to migrate landward, which is a key mechanism for coastal habitats to cope with rising sea levels. Systematic conservation planning can identify sites that are potentially resilient to SLR and incorporate factors that influence an ecosystem’s capability to respond to change. Crucially, the relatively slow rates of SLR and persistence of coastal wetlands during the earlier half of this century present an opportunity to introduce management interventions aimed at enhancing ecosystem resilience.

沿海城市及其自然环境容易受到气候变化的影响，尤其是海平面上升 (SLR)。硬质海岸防御在保护处于危险中的城市沿海人口免受洪水和侵蚀方面发挥着关键作用，但沿海生态系统通过促进海岸保护，在城市和城市中心的整体可持续性和复原力方面也发挥着重要作用。保护沿海生态系统并最大限度地提高其复原力将确保城市沿海社区能够继续从生态系统服务中受益，并提高其应对未来不利影响的适应能力。我们以新加坡的超城市化海岸为案例研究，模拟了沿海湿地对 SLR 的复原力以及保护规划中的综合复原力。我们发现沿海栖息地对海平面上升的反应在建模期间有所不同。虽然由于潜在的栖息地转变，到本世纪末红树林和滩涂面积略有净增加，但现有栖息地的覆盖范围将减少。与城市化相关的高度修改的海岸线阻碍了现有湿地向陆迁移的能力，这是沿海栖息地应对海平面上升的关键机制。系统的保护规划可以确定对 SLR 具有潜在弹性的地点，并纳入影响生态系统应对变化能力的因素。至关重要的是，