Dispersal of meroplankton larvae in the ocean is a key process which determines larval supply to areas of suitable habitat and enables connectivity between populations, particularly for nonmigratory species. Our objective was to use a biophysical larval transport model to create a time series (2000–2019) of larval retention, dispersal distance and connectivity estimates for the commercially important Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) on mud grounds off Ireland. Where time series of population estimates were sufficiently long to conduct analysis, we also investigated if larval dispersal indices could be used to predict variations in adult density, after a lag period, hypothesising that this would only apply to grounds with consistently low larval supply. Grounds off Ireland had varying characteristics related to their ability to retain and exchange larvae which was influenced by the local hydrodynamic regime and spatial isolation from other grounds. Larval supply was consistently low on the Aran grounds to the west of Ireland, which have experienced abundance declines in the past. The time series of modelled larval dispersal indices at the Aran grounds was linked to empirical adult burrow densities with a 3-year lag. Whereas the western Irish Sea, which has consistently high larval supply, showed no such relationship. Models can provide important larval recruitment information early in the life cycle for species of commercial or conservation importance.

中文翻译：

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爱尔兰周围挪威龙虾 (Nephrops norvegicus) 幼虫传播和连通性的长期年际变化：当供应方很重要时

浮游生物幼虫在海洋中的扩散是一个关键过程，它决定了向适宜栖息地区域供应幼虫，并实现种群之间的连通性，特别是对于非迁徙物种。我们的目标是使用生物物理幼虫运输模型为具有商业重要性的挪威龙虾（Nephrops norvegicus) 在爱尔兰附近的泥地上。在人口估计的时间序列足够长以进行分析的情况下，我们还研究了在滞后期后是否可以使用幼虫扩散指数来预测成虫密度的变化，假设这仅适用于幼虫供应持续低的场地。爱尔兰附近的土地具有不同的特征，这些特征与它们保留和交换幼虫的能力有关，这受到当地水动力状况和与其他土地空间隔离的影响。爱尔兰西部的阿兰地区的幼虫供应量一直很低，过去经历了丰度下降。在 Aran 场地模拟的幼虫扩散指数的时间序列与经验性的成虫洞穴密度相关，滞后 3 年。鉴于西爱尔兰海，其幼虫供应量一直很高，但没有显示出这种关系。模型可以在生命周期早期为具有商业或保护重要性的物种提供重要的幼虫补充信息。