Research suggests that economic declines contribute to mortality risks from suicide and drug poisoning, but how the economy impacts individuals’ risks of these deaths has been challenging to specify. Building on recent theoretical advances, we investigate how adolescent occupational expectations and preparation contribute to suicide and drug poisoning deaths in a shifting economy. We use High School and Beyond data linked to adult mortality records for men that were exposed to a decline in labor market share and wages in predominantly blue-collar occupations during early adulthood. We find that adolescent men who expected these occupations had increased risks of suicide and drug poisoning death as adults net of educational and occupational attainment in early adulthood. Family background and occupational preparation are risk factors for death by drug poisoning but not suicide. Our findings improve our understanding of how labor market uncertainty shapes individuals’ vulnerability to suicide and drug poisoning death.

研究表明，经济衰退会增加自杀和药物中毒的死亡风险，但经济如何影响个人的这些死亡风险一直难以明确。基于最近的理论进展，我们研究了在经济转型中青少年的职业期望和准备如何导致自杀和药物中毒死亡。我们使用高中及以后的数据，这些数据与成年早期男性劳动力市场份额和工资下降的男性成人死亡率记录相关。我们发现，期望这些职业的青少年男性在成年后自杀和药物中毒死亡的风险增加，扣除成年早期的教育和职业成就。家庭背景和职业准备是药物中毒死亡的危险因素，但不是自杀。我们的研究结果加深了我们对劳动力市场不确定性如何影响个人自杀和药物中毒死亡的脆弱性的理解。