Decades of studies identify personality traits as prospectively associated with life outcomes. However, previous investigations of personality characteristic-outcome associations have not taken a principled approach to covariate use or other sampling strategies to ensure the robustness of personality-outcome associations. The result is that it is unclear (a) whether personality characteristics are associated with important outcomes after accounting for a range of background variables, (b) for whom and when personality-outcome associations hold, and (c) that background variables are most important to account for. The present study examines the robustness and boundary conditions of personality-outcome associations using prospective Big Five associations with 14 health, social, education/work, and societal outcomes across eight different person- and study-level moderators using individual participant data from 171,395 individuals across 10 longitudinal panel studies in a mega-analytic framework. Robustness and boundary conditions were systematically tested using two approaches: propensity score matching and specification curve analysis. Three findings emerged: First, personality characteristics remain robustly associated with later life outcomes. Second, the effects generalize, as there are few moderators of personality-outcome associations. Third, robustness was differential across covariate choice in nearly half of the tested models, with the inclusion or exclusion of some of these flipping the direction of association. In summary, personality characteristics are robustly associated with later life outcomes with few moderated associations. However, researchers still need to be careful in their choices of covariates. We discuss how these findings can inform studies of personality-outcome associations, as well as recommendations for covariate inclusion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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人格预测的大型分析：稳健性和边界条件。

数十年的研究确定人格特质与生活结果有前瞻性的关联。然而，以往对人格特征-结果关联的调查并未采用协变量使用或其他抽样策略的原则性方法来确保人格-结果关联的稳健性。结果是不清楚 (a) 在考虑一系列背景变量后，人格特征是否与重要结果相关，(b) 人格-结果关联对谁以及何时成立，以及 (c) 背景变量最重要占。本研究使用具有 14 个健康、社会、教育/工作、八个不同的个人和研究级别主持人使用来自 10 个纵向小组研究的 171,395 个人的个人参与者数据在一个大型分析框架中的结果和社会结果。使用两种方法系统地测试稳健性和边界条件：倾向得分匹配和规格曲线分析。出现了三个发现：首先，人格特征仍然与以后的生活结果密切相关。其次，效果普遍化，因为人格-结果关联的调节因素很少。第三，在将近一半的测试模型中，协变量选择的稳健性存在差异，包括或排除其中一些翻转了关联方向。总之，人格特征与晚年生活结果密切相关，几乎没有调节关联。然而，研究人员在选择协变量时仍需谨慎。我们讨论了这些发现如何为人格-结果关联的研究以及协变量纳入的建议提供信息。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2022 APA，保留所有权利）。