ABSTRACT

This paper examines the structural political and economic determinants of country-level severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. By conducting an empirical analysis of 118 countries through the first wave of the pandemic, we show that – unlike natural disasters and past viral outbreaks – national wealth has not insulated countries from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. Further, we show that timely and responsive policy measures are vital, but so too is the capacity of governments to compel their populations to adhere the chosen policies. While a society's age structure is a key determinant of its COVID-19 mortality rate, we demonstrate that political capacity, combined with an appropriate policy response, outweighs economic and demographic factors in forecasting within-country severity of the pandemic.

摘要

本文研究了国家层面 COVID-19 大流行严重程度的结构性政治和经济决定因素。通过在第一波大流行期间对 118 个国家进行实证分析，我们表明，与自然灾害和过去的病毒爆发不同，国家财富并未使国家免受 COVID-19 最严重的后果。此外，我们表明及时和响应迅速的政策措施至关重要，但政府迫使其民众遵守所选政策的能力也很重要。虽然一个社会的年龄结构是其 COVID-19 死亡率的关键决定因素，但我们证明，在预测国内流行病的严重程度时，政治能力与适当的政策反应相结合，超过了经济和人口因素。