We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.

我们研究了恐怖袭击对公司长期年度管理收益预测偏差的影响。我们发现，与未受影响公司的控制组的经理相比，位于攻击中心附近的公司的经理更有可能发布乐观的长期年度收益预测。对于更严重的恐怖事件、基本面更不确定、地域多元化程度更低的公司，风险敞口效应更强。此外，我们记录到，对于股票市场对恐怖事件的负面反应较强的公司、能力较高的 CEO 以及更有可能在恐怖事件后发行股票或进行收购的公司，经理们的预测乐观情绪会增强。总体，