Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-02-11 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103384 Ankit Shekhar 1 , Charles A. Shapiro 2
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CONTEXT
Nebraska, US, is projected to face increased winter and spring precipitation, and drier summers as the climate changes over the next 20 to 30 years. Agricultural adaptations and adjustments would be critical to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change and achieve global food security.
OBJECTIVE
Focusing on the projected climatic change projections for Nebraska, our objective is to analyze data from a long-term (31 years; 1986–2016) rainfed agriculture experiment to determine how past years, that had similar conditions to the projected future climate - wetter winter (WW), wetter spring (WS), and dry summer (DS), responded to these conditions and attempt to describe the near-future (upcoming 20–30 years) corn and soybean yield, and income returns in northeast Nebraska.
METHODS
First, we used a meteorological drought index, to determine years with projected future climate (6 years with WW, 4 years with WS, and 4 years with DS) and 9 all normal (AN) seasons years during the study period. Second, we performed a linear mixed-model analysis of variance to compare treatment (tillage: no-till, disk-till and plow-till; crop rotation: continuous-corn, corn-soybean; Nitrogen rates: 0–160 kg-N/ha) interaction and their effect on crop yield between projected future climate (WW, WS and DS) years and AN years. Finally, we used partial budgeting to calculate change in income and income risk across imposed management practices.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Results indicate that corn years with WW, WS, and DS seasons showed yield reductions of 9.1%, 10.9%, and 38.6% compared to an average AN season corn yield, which was 11.3 Mg/ha. Compared to the average AN season yield of 3.6 Mg/ha, soybean yields were + 1.4%, −3.3%, and − 31.8% for WW, WS, and DS, respectively. These yield differences did not significantly affect average corn and soybean income return in WW and WS years compared to the AN years (900 $/ha). However, total income returns in DS seasons regardless of pre-season conditions was about 40% of income return in AN seasons from C
S (900 $/ha) and CC (800 $/ha), respectively. Soybean yield and income returns were more stable than corn, which resulted in the corn-soybean rotation system always being higher in yields and being more profitable.
SIGNIFICANCE
Our recommended management practice of disk tillage and corn-soybean rotation with 80 kg-N/ha could result in highest and stable income returns in near-future. Such long-term crop experimental studies can serve as an important complement to crop-model studies to get improved insight into future crop yield and income returns.
中文翻译：
基于对内布拉斯加州长期雨养农业试验的回顾性分析的预期作物产量和收入回报
语境
随着未来 20 至 30 年的气候变化，预计美国内布拉斯加州将面临冬季和春季降水增加以及夏季干燥的情况。农业适应和调整对于减轻气候变化的不利影响和实现全球粮食安全至关重要。
客观的
着眼于内布拉斯加州预计的气候变化预测，我们的目标是分析长期（31 年；1986-2016 年）雨养农业实验的数据，以确定过去几年与预计的未来气候条件相似 - 冬季更湿(WW)、较湿润的春季 (WS) 和干燥的夏季 (DS) 对这些条件做出了反应，并试图描述内布拉斯加州东北部近期（即将到来的 20-30 年）的玉米和大豆产量以及收入回报。
方法
首先，我们使用气象干旱指数来确定研究期间预计未来气候的年份（WW 6 年，WS 4 年，DS 4 年）和 9 个所有正常（AN）季节年。其次，我们进行了线性混合模型方差分析来比较处理（耕作：免耕、盘耕和犁耕；轮作：连续玉米、玉米-大豆；氮肥用量：0-160 kg-N /ha) 预测的未来气候（WW、WS 和 DS）年和 AN 年之间的相互作用及其对作物产量的影响。最后，我们使用部分预算来计算实施管理实践中的收入变化和收入风险。
结果和结论
结果表明，与 11.3 毫克/公顷的平均 AN 季节玉米产量相比，具有 WW、WS 和 DS 季节的玉米年份的产量分别降低了 9.1%、10.9% 和 38.6%。与 3.6 毫克/公顷的平均 AN 季节产量相比，WW、WS 和 DS 的大豆产量分别为 + 1.4%、-3.3% 和 - 31.8%。与 AN 年（900 美元/公顷）相比，这些产量差异不会显着影响 WW 和 WS 年的平均玉米和大豆收入回报。然而，无论季前条件如何，DS 季节的总收入回报约为 C S（900 美元/公顷）和 CC（800 美元/公顷）的 AN 季节收入回报的 40%。大豆的产量和收益回报比玉米更稳定，这导致玉米-大豆轮作系统总是产量更高，利润更高。
意义
我们推荐的 80 kg-N/ha 的圆盘耕作和玉米-大豆轮作管理实践可能会在不久的将来带来最高和稳定的收入回报。这种长期的作物实验研究可以作为作物模型研究的重要补充，以更好地了解未来的作物产量和收入回报。
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