ABSTRACT

The subsequent measurement of goodwill in mergers and acquisitions has been controversial for a long time in academia and practice. This article attempts to propose a new conceptual view of the “attrition” of goodwill to improve the subsequent measurement model of goodwill. In this paper, the survival analysis method is introduced into the study of goodwill impairment decision-making and the influencing factors of economic life for the first time. Through the non-parametric analysis of Kaplan-Meier survival function, Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk function and risk rate function estimation, it is found that goodwill has the characteristics of wasting: the goodwill impairment risk of M&A projects is in an inverted U-shape and the goodwill starts to be impaired in the 3rd year on average within the 95% confidence interval, and the impairment risk rate reaches the highest (up to 8%) in the fifth year, and the probability of no impairment for 10 consecutive years is about 50%. Further regression analysis based on the survival risk model shows that human factors such as the pre-acquisition valuation level of the acquirer, management motivation and external supervision distort the impairment decision.

摘要

并购中商誉的后续计量长期以来在学术界和实践中一直存在争议。本文试图提出一种新的商誉“损耗”概念，以完善商誉的后续计量模型。本文首次将生存分析法引入商誉减值决策及经济寿命影响因素研究中。通过对Kaplan-Meier生存函数、Nelson-Aalen累积风险函数和风险率函数估计的非参数分析，发现商誉具有浪费的特征：并购项目的商誉减值风险呈倒U型在 95% 的置信区间内，商誉平均在第 3 年开始减值，减值风险率在第 5 年达到最高（达 8%），连续 10 年不减值的概率约为 50%。基于生存风险模型的进一步回归分析表明，收购方的收购前估值水平、管理层动机和外部监督等人为因素扭曲了减值决策。