Abstract

Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) aims to reduce the Business-As-Usual (BAU) emissions in its power generation sector by 28.7 MtCO₂-e by 2030 according to its National Determined Contribution (NDC). Based on current published data, there appears to be a gap in quantifying the activity level and carbon intensity of planned actions to meet this target. Through two scenarios, this study explored the impacts of power plant dispatch optimization and new zero-carbon energy additions for T&T through adaptations of a widely used method called Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA). A national grid emission factor (GEF) of 0.56 MtCO₂-e/TWh was determined using an internationally accepted methodology from gathered power plant data. The GEF was discretized to project a BAU case to benchmark both scenarios. Scenario 1 (S1) determined T&T would achieve 8% of the NDC target if the existing supply is optimized in the years 2022 to 2030 through the compound pinch points. To achieve the target, Scenario 2 (S2) determined that at least 47% of T&T’s grid energy needs to come from zero-emission carbon sources by 2022. This would equate to required capacities of 2,169 MW of solar photovoltaic or 1,549 MW of onshore wind using the most recent published capacity factors, and a decrease in the BAU GEF by 43%.

摘要

特立尼达和多巴哥 (T&T) 的目标是根据其国家自主贡献 (NDC) 到 2030 年将其发电部门的一切照旧 (BAU) 排放量减少 28.7 MtCO _{2 -e。}根据目前公布的数据，在量化活动水平和计划行动以实现这一目标的碳强度方面似乎存在差距。通过两种情景，本研究通过采用一种广泛使用的称为碳排放夹点分析 (CEPA) 的方法，探讨了电厂调度优化和新增零碳能源对 T&T 的影响。国家电网排放因子 (GEF) 为 0.56 MtCO ₂-e/TWh 是使用国际公认的方法从收集的发电厂数据中确定的。GEF 被离散化以预测 BAU 案例来对这两种情景进行基准测试。情景 1 (S1) 确定，如果在 2022 年至 2030 年通过复合夹点优化现有供应，则 T&T 将实现 NDC 目标的 8%。为实现目标，情景 2 (S2) 确定到 2022 年，至少 47% 的 T&T 电网能源需要来自零排放碳源。这相当于所需的 2,169 兆瓦太阳能光伏或 1,549 兆瓦陆上风能使用最近公布的容量因子，BAU GEF 减少了 43%。