East Asia will face a skewed monsoon cycle with soaring flood, drought, and weather whiplash risks in a warming climate. In our objective eight-intraseasonal-monsoon-stage framework, we uncover a ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm in East Asia, contesting the fallen ‘rich-get-richer’ common belief. On timing, the Mid-summer and Fall periods are stretching at the expense of three delayed, shortened, and weakened winter stages, especially near the end of the twenty-first century. On threats, entire East Asia will experience up to 14–20 more heavy precipitation days during the rainy Spring to Mid-summer stages. Specifically, the Yangtze basin will suffer from an earlier pluvial period with escalating flood risks. Moreover, societal security and ecosystem resilience in the Huai-Yellow basin, South Japan, and the Korean Peninsula will be challenged by more frequent weather whiplash. Under the monsoon-stage framework, a complete moisture budget decomposition sheds light on the causes of a slower precipitation scaling and the ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm.

东亚将面临一个倾斜的季风周期，在气候变暖的情况下，洪水、干旱和天气鞭打风险飙升。在我们客观的八个季节内季风阶段框架中，我们揭示了东亚的“干变湿”范式，挑战了堕落的“富人更富”的普遍信念。在时间上，仲夏和秋季时期的延长是以三个延迟、缩短和减弱的冬季阶段为代价的，尤其是在 21 世纪末期。受威胁时，整个东亚在多雨的春季至仲夏阶段将经历多达 14-20 天的强降水。具体而言，长江流域将遭受更早的洪水期，洪水风险不断升级。此外，日本南部淮黄盆地的社会安全和生态系统复原力，朝鲜半岛将受到更频繁的天气鞭打的挑战。在季风阶段框架下，完整的水分收支分解揭示了降水量变慢和“干变湿”范式的原因。