Designing the mid-transition: A review of medium-term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States,WIREs Climate Change

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Designing the mid-transition: A review of medium-term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-02-08 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.768
Emily Grubert ₁ , Sara Hastings‐Simon ₂

Affiliation

Decarbonizing the energy system is critical for addressing climate change. Given the dominance of fossil fuels in the energy system, decarbonization requires rapid and significant industrial transition of the energy supply at scale. This includes explicit and coordinated plans not only for zero carbon phase-in, but for fossil carbon phase-out. Even very rapid decarbonization will likely take decades, leading to a medium-term future where the conventional, fossil-based energy system coexists with a new, zero-carbon energy system. Each imposes operational constraints on the other: what we call the mid-transition. Notably, this coexistence means that the new, zero-carbon system will develop under fossil carbon system constraints. The mid-transition will therefore likely require specific analytical metrics designed to support decision making under dynamic and uncertain conditions. Many aspects of transition will be felt, and shaped, directly by individuals because of our direct interactions with energy systems. Even rare missteps are likely to have significant and potentially system design-relevant impacts on perception, political support, and implementation. Comparisons of the new system to the old system are likely to rest on experience of a world less affected by climate change, such that concerns about lower reliability, higher costs, and other challenges might be perceived as inherent to zero-carbon systems, versus energy systems facing consequences of climate change and long-term underinvestment. This review assesses and evaluates medium-term challenges associated with the mid-transition in the United States, emphasizing the need for explicit planning for joint and coordinated phase-in and phase-out.

中文翻译：

设计中期转型：美国协调脱碳的中期挑战回顾

能源系统脱碳对于应对气候变化至关重要。鉴于化石燃料在能源系统中的主导地位，脱碳需要大规模的能源供应进行快速和重大的工业转型。这包括明确和协调的计划，不仅针对零碳逐步引入，而且针对化石碳逐步淘汰。即使是非常快速的脱碳也可能需要数十年的时间，从而导致传统的基于化石的能源系统与新的零碳能源系统共存的中期未来。每个都对另一个施加操作限制：我们称之为中间过渡。值得注意的是，这种共存意味着新的零碳系统将在化石碳系统的约束下发展。因此，过渡中期可能需要特定的分析指标来支持动态和不确定条件下的决策。由于我们与能量系统的直接相互作用，个人将直接感受到和塑造转变的许多方面。即使是罕见的失误也可能对感知、政治支持和实施产生重大且可能与系统设计相关的影响。新系统与旧系统的比较可能依赖于受气候变化影响较小的世界的经验，因此对可靠性较低、成本较高和其他挑战的担忧可能被视为零碳系统与能源相比所固有的系统面临气候变化和长期投资不足的后果。

更新日期：2022-02-08

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