A substantial minority of the public express belief in conspiracy theories. A robust phenomenon in this area is that people who believe one conspiracy theory are more likely to believe in others. But the reason for this “positive manifold” of belief in conspiracy theories is unclear. One possibility is that a single underlying latent factor (e.g. “conspiracism”) causes variation in belief in specific conspiracy theories. Another possibility is that beliefs in various conspiracy theories support one another in a mutually reinforcing network of beliefs (the “monological belief system” theory). While the monological theory has been influential in the literature, the fact that it can be operationalised as a statistical network model has not previously been recognised. In this study, we therefore tested both the unidimensional factor model and a network model. Participants were 1553 American adults recruited via Prolific. Belief in conspiracies was measured using an adapted version of the Belief in Conspiracy Theories Inventory. The fit of the two competing models was evaluated both by using van Bork et al.’s (Psychometrika, 83, 2018, 443, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56, 2019, 175) method for testing network versus unidimensional factor models, as well as by evaluating goodness of fit to the sample covariance matrix. In both cases, evaluation of fit according to our pre-registered inferential criteria favoured the network model.

中文翻译：

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为什么不同阴谋论的信念在个体之间呈正相关？测试单论网络与一维因子模型的解释

相当一部分公众表示相信阴谋论。该领域的一个重要现象是，相信一种阴谋论的人更有可能相信另一种阴谋论。但是，这种相信阴谋论的“积极多样性”的原因尚不清楚。一种可能性是，一个潜在的潜在因素（例如“阴谋论”）会导致对特定阴谋论的信念发生变化。另一种可能性是，各种阴谋论的信仰在相互加强的信仰网络中相互支持（“单一信仰体系”理论）。虽然独白理论在文献中具有影响力，但它可以作为统计网络模型操作的事实以前并未得到认可。在这项研究中，因此，我们测试了一维因子模型和网络模型。参与者是通过 Prolific 招募的 1553 名美国成年人。对阴谋的信仰是使用改编版的阴谋论信仰清单来衡量的。通过使用 van Bork 等人的 (Psychometrika, 83, 2018, 443, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56, 2019, 175) 测试网络与一维因子模型的方法，以及通过评估样本协方差矩阵的拟合优度。在这两种情况下，根据我们预先注册的推理标准进行的拟合评估有利于网络模型。通过使用 van Bork 等人的 (Psychometrika, 83, 2018, 443, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56, 2019, 175) 测试网络与一维因子模型的方法，以及通过评估样本协方差矩阵的拟合优度。在这两种情况下，根据我们预先注册的推理标准进行的拟合评估有利于网络模型。通过使用 van Bork 等人的 (Psychometrika, 83, 2018, 443, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56, 2019, 175) 测试网络与一维因子模型的方法，以及通过评估样本协方差矩阵的拟合优度。在这两种情况下，根据我们预先注册的推理标准进行的拟合评估有利于网络模型。