The decline in fertility has been the subject of much research, particularly on the countries that were the precursors of this historic decline. But, if research has focused on the mechanisms of the adoption of birth control, studies about the changes in fertility in cities are less frequent. To fill this gap, this article proposes to study Paris, the city where the lowest marital fertility levels were measured during the 19th century (Brée, 2017; 10.4000/lectures.22911). The objective of this paper is to understand the spread of this intensive birth control on an intraurban scale. This approach is original because there is almost no study that examines 19th century changes in fertility on an intraurban scale. We use spatial statistics and spatial panel modelling to consider both the incidence of birth control behaviour and the socio-economic characteristics of the districts studied, and those of the neighbouring districts, to distinguish between adaptation and diffusion effects. These methods constitute another originality of the article insofar as this type of model remains very little used in historical demography. The results highlight important spatial disparities within Paris. We also show both the importance of the social composition on the level of fertility in the districts and the strong effect of the behaviours in the neighbouring districts in the fertility change.

中文翻译：

---

巴黎生育率下降：城市内空间分析

生育率下降一直是许多研究的主题，特别是对作为这一历史性下降前兆的国家的研究。但是，如果研究集中在采取节育措施的机制上，那么关于城市生育率变化的研究就不那么频繁了。为了填补这一空白，本文建议研究 19 世纪婚姻生育水平最低的城市巴黎（Brée，2017；10.4000/lectures.22911）。本文的目的是了解这种密集节育在城内范围内的传播。这种方法是独创的，因为几乎没有研究考察 19 世纪城市内生育率的变化。我们使用空间统计和空间面板模型来考虑生育控制行为的发生率和所研究地区以及邻近地区的社会经济特征，以区分适应和扩散效应。这些方法构成了本文的另一个独创性，因为这种模型在历史人口学中仍然很少使用。结果突出了巴黎内部重要的空间差异。我们还展示了社会构成对地区生育率水平的重要性以及邻近地区的行为对生育率变化的强烈影响。这些方法构成了本文的另一个独创性，因为这种模型在历史人口学中仍然很少使用。结果突出了巴黎内部重要的空间差异。我们还展示了社会构成对地区生育率水平的重要性以及邻近地区的行为对生育率变化的强烈影响。这些方法构成了本文的另一个独创性，因为这种模型在历史人口学中仍然很少使用。结果突出了巴黎内部重要的空间差异。我们还展示了社会构成对地区生育率水平的重要性以及邻近地区的行为对生育率变化的强烈影响。