Mediterranean agriculture is markedly threatened by climate change and extreme events (drought and flooding). For the first time, the EPIC model was used in a long-term organic vegetable field experiment to evaluate the performance of agro-ecological practices, as adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Southern Italy. These practices were a soil hydraulic arrangement (consisting of ridges and flat strips) combined with crop rotation (winter and summer cash crops), organic fertilization (poultry manure vs. no fertilization), and cover crops (pure or in mixture vs. no cover) managed as living mulch, green manure, or flattened by roller crimper. Seven treatments were selected for the simulation procedure. EPIC was calibrated and validated using measured crop yield and soil organic carbon stock values. The statistical metrics of EPIC showed r to be between 0.96 and 0.97, the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency between 0.54 and 0.94, and the relative root mean square error between 2 and 18%. Then, the model was run under baseline current climate (1985–2014) and near-future climate change (2015–2044) scenarios. Climate change increased both microbial respiration and nitrate leaching compared to the baseline, while soil organic carbon stock change and nitrous oxide emissions were mainly influenced by agro-ecological practices. Cover crop management could be an effective solution to limit negative climate effects, since it allowed improving summer cash crop yield (32%) and soil organic carbon stock change (2%), and reducing nitrogen losses (–34%), as compared to the no-cover-crop system. Finally, under climate change, green manure increased microbial respiration (5%) and reduced nitrogen losses (− 19%), compared to roller crimper flattening. Our findings indicated that the tested agro-ecological practices contribute to re-designing new climate change-resilient vegetable systems, by involving the stakeholders in promoting a co-innovation and co-research knowledge platform and fine-tuning agro-ecological practices in a wider range of environments.

地中海农业受到气候变化和极端事件（干旱和洪水）的显着威胁。首次将 EPIC 模型用于长期有机蔬菜田间试验，以评估农业生态实践的绩效，作为应对意大利南部气候变化的适应和缓解措施。这些做法是土壤水力布置（由山脊和扁平条带组成）结合轮作（冬季和夏季经济作物）、有机施肥（家禽粪便与不施肥）和覆盖作物（纯或混合与无覆盖） ) 作为活的覆盖物、绿肥进行管理，或通过滚压机压平。为模拟程序选择了七种处理方法。使用测量的作物产量和土壤有机碳储量值校准和验证 EPIC。r在 0.96 和 0.97 之间，Nash-Sutcliffe 模型效率在 0.54 和 0.94 之间，相对均方根误差在 2% 和 18% 之间。然后，该模型在基线当前气候（1985-2014）和近期气候变化（2015-2044）情景下运行。与基线相比，气候变化增加了微生物呼吸和硝酸盐浸出，而土壤有机碳储量变化和一氧化二氮排放主要受农业生态实践的影响。覆盖作物管理可能是限制负面气候影响的有效解决方案，因为它可以提高夏季经济作物产量（32%）和土壤有机碳储量变化（2%），并减少氮损失（–34%），与无覆盖作物制度。最后，在气候变化下，与滚压机压扁相比，绿肥增加了微生物呼吸 (5%) 并减少了氮损失 (− 19%)。我们的研究结果表明，经过测试的农业生态实践有助于重新设计新的适应气候变化的蔬菜系统，让利益相关者参与促进共同创新和共同研究的知识平台，并在更广泛的范围内微调农业生态实践环境范围。