Affordable housing has declined in recent decades, yet limited research has examined the demographic and economic changes influencing place-level affordability—especially outside of large metros. In this study I examine the effects of county-level population growth and decline, population aging, and natural amenity development on rates of affordable housing, income, and housing costs across four types of counties. While declines in affordability from 1990 to 2016 were universal between rural and urban counties, population growth is associated with decreases in affordability in rural counties but increased affordability in large metros counties due to estimated decreases in housing costs. Population aging is estimated to improve affordability in large and small metro counties, despite the associated decrease in income and housing costs across all county types. The effects of aging vary greatly between owners and renters. Natural amenity development, despite its theoretical importance, is not associated with changes in affordability for rural counties.

中文翻译：

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1990-2016 年美国农村和城市经济适用房不断变化的格局*

近几十年来，经济适用房有所下降，但有限的研究调查了影响地方水平可负担性的人口和经济变化 - 特别是在大型地铁之外。在这项研究中，我研究了县级人口增长和下降、人口老龄化和自然便利设施开发对四类县的经济适用房率、收入和住房成本的影响。虽然从 1990 年到 2016 年，农村和城市县的负担能力普遍下降，但人口增长与农村县的负担能力下降有关，但由于住房成本估计下降，大都市县的负担能力增加。据估计，人口老龄化将提高大大小小的都会县的负担能力，尽管所有县类型的收入和住房成本都相应下降。老化的影响在业主和租客之间差异很大。尽管在理论上具有重要意义，自然便利设施的开发与农村县的可负担性变化无关。