Countries transitioning from autocracy to democracy often struggle to maintain law and order. Yet relatively little is known about how increasing crime rates impact public support for authoritarian leadership during a transition. We find an empirical relationship between rising crime and support for authoritarian leadership in Egypt following the 2011 uprisings. Analysis of original crime data from Egypt suggests that electoral districts exposed to larger year-on-year changes in localized patterns of crime were more likely to vote for the ‘strongman’ candidate in Egypt’s first, and only, free and fair presidential election in 2012. We also analyze survey data which shows that Egyptians who were highly concerned about crime were more likely to express support for a ‘strong leader’ as well as for military rule, even after controlling for a broad set of covariates. This research illustrates how instability triggered by political transitions can have negative implications for democratic consolidation.

从专制向民主过渡的国家往往难以维持法律和秩序。然而，关于犯罪率上升如何影响过渡期间公众对威权领导的支持，人们知之甚少。我们发现 2011 年起义后埃及犯罪率上升与对威权领导的支持之间存在实证关系。对埃及原始犯罪数据的分析表明，受局部犯罪模式逐年变化较大影响的选区更有可能在 2012 年埃及第一次也是唯一一次自由公正的总统选举中投票给“强人”候选人. 我们还分析了调查数据，这些数据表明，高度关注犯罪的埃及人更有可能表达对“强有力的领导人”以及军事统治的支持，即使在控制了广泛的协变量之后。这项研究说明了政治转型引发的不稳定如何对民主巩固产生负面影响。