Crop rotation, fertilization and residue management affect the water balance and crop production and can lead to different sensitivities to climate change. To assess the impacts of climate change on crop rotations (CRs), the crop model ensemble (APSIM,AQUACROP, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT, HERMES, MONICA) was used. The yields and water balance of two CRs with the same set of crops (winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and winter rape) in a continuous transient run from 1961 to 2080 were simulated. CR1 was without cover crops and without manure application. Straw after the harvest was exported from the fields. CR2 included cover crops, manure application and crop residue retention left on field. Simulations were performed using two soil types (Chernozem, Cambisol) within three sites in the Czech Republic, which represent temperature and precipitation gradients for crops in Central Europe. For the description of future climatic conditions, seven climate scenarios were used. Six of them had increasing CO2 concentrations according RCP 8.5, one had no CO₂ increase in the future. The output of an ensemble expected higher productivity by 0.82 t/ha/year and 2.04 t/ha/year for yields and aboveground biomass in the future (2051–2080). However, if the direct effect of a CO₂ increase is not considered, the average yields for lowlands will be lower. Compared to CR1, CR2 showed higher average yields of 1.26 t/ha/year for current climatic conditions and 1.41 t/ha/year for future climatic conditions. For the majority of climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble agrees on the projected yield increase in C3 crops in the future for CR2 but not for CR1. Higher agreement for future yield increases was found for Chernozem,while for Cambisol, lower yields under dry climate scenarios are expected. For silage maize, changes in simulated yields depend on locality. If the same hybrid will be used in the future, then yield reductions should be expected within lower altitudes. The results indicate the potential for higher biomass production from cover crops, but CR2 is associated with almost 120 mm higher evapotranspiration compared to that of CR1 over a 5-year cycle for lowland stations in the future, which in the case of the rainfed agriculture could affect the long-term soil water balance. This could affect groundwater replenishment, especially for locations with fine textured soils, although the findings of this study highlight the potential for the soil water-holding capacity to buffer against the adverse weather conditions.

作物轮作、施肥和残留物管理会影响水分平衡和作物生产，并可能导致对气候变化的不同敏感性。为了评估气候变化对作物轮作（CRs）的影响，使用了作物模型集合（APSIM、AQUACROP、CROPSYST、DAISY、DSSAT、HERMES、MONICA）。模拟了从 1961 年到 2080 年连续瞬态运行的两个 CR 与同一组作物（冬小麦、青贮玉米、春大麦和冬油菜）的产量和水分平衡。CR1 没有覆盖作物，也没有施肥。收获后的稻草从田间出口。CR2 包括覆盖作物、施肥和留在田间的作物残留物。在捷克共和国的三个地点使用两种土壤类型（Chernozem、Cambisol）进行了模拟，代表中欧作物的温度和降水梯度。为了描述未来的气候条件，使用了七种气候情景。根据 RCP 8.5，其中 6 个的 CO2 浓度增加，1 个没有 CO₂未来增加。综合产量预计未来（2051-2080 年）产量和地上生物量的生产力将提高 0.82 吨/公顷/年和 2.04 吨/公顷/年。_{但是，如果 CO 2}的直接影响不考虑增加，低地的平均产量会更低。与 CR1 相比，CR2 在当前气候条件下的平均单产较高，为 1.26 吨/公顷/年，在未来气候条件下为 1.41 吨/公顷/年。对于大多数气候变化情景，作物模型集合同意 CR2 而非 CR1 未来 C3 作物的预计产量增加。对于 Chernozem，未来产量增加的一致性更高，而对于 Cambisol，预计在干旱气候情景下产量会降低。对于青贮玉米，模拟产量的变化取决于地区。如果将来使用相同的混合动力车，那么在较低海拔地区应该会出现减产。结果表明覆盖作物具有更高的生物量生产潜力，但与 CR1 相比，CR2 与未来 5 年周期低地站的蒸散量相比高出近 120 毫米，在雨养农业的情况下，这可能会影响长期土壤水分平衡。这可能会影响地下水补给，特别是对于质地细腻的土壤，尽管本研究的结果强调了土壤保水能力缓冲不利天气条件的潜力。