While compound weather and climate events (CEs) can lead to significant socioeconomic consequences, their response to climate change is mostly unexplored. We report the first multi-model assessment of future changes in return periods for the co-occurrence of heatwaves and drought, and extreme winds and precipitation based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and three emission scenarios. Extreme winds and precipitation CEs occur more frequently in many regions, particularly under higher emissions. Heatwaves and drought occur more frequently everywhere under all emission scenarios examined. For each CMIP6 model, we derive a skill score for simulating CEs. Models with higher skill in simulating historical CEs project smaller increases in the number of heatwaves and drought in Eurasia, but larger numbers of strong winds and heavy precipitation CEs everywhere for all emission scenarios. This result is partly masked if the whole CMIP6 ensemble is used, pointing to the considerable value in further improvements in climate models.

虽然复合天气和气候事件 (CEs) 可能导致重大的社会经济后果，但它们对气候变化的反应大多尚未探索。我们报告了基于耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 和三种排放情景的热浪和干旱同时发生以及极端风和降水的未来变化的第一次多模型评估。极端风和降水 CEs 在许多地区更频繁地发生，特别是在排放量较高的情况下。在所研究的所有排放情景下，热浪和干旱在任何地方都更频繁地发生。对于每个 CMIP6 模型，我们推导出模拟 CE 的技能分数。在模拟历史 CE 方面具有较高技能的模型预测欧亚大陆的热浪和干旱数量增加较小，但对于所有排放情景，到处都有大量的强风和强降水 CE。如果使用整个 CMIP6 集合，这一结果会被部分掩盖，这表明气候模型的进一步改进具有相当大的价值。