We conceptualise and measure welfare state change across 21 high-income countries as a continuum delineated by a double movement, that is, the combined change of compensatory and employment-oriented policies. Our double movement framework readapts Polanyi's concept into the context of welfare state change. We analyse this double movement across four decades using Principal Component Analysis and a new indicator that compares spending in 2015 to maximum and minimum spending levels since the 1980. We contribute to the literature in three ways. First, we empirically document an overall change in spending for compensatory and employment-oriented policies, with the latter becoming more prominent over time. This change is more pronounced in the 1990s and even more so in the 2000s, and partially reduced classic regime differences. The PCAs generate a Cartesian space where each country is positioned across time (the 1980s, the 1990s, the 2000s and the 2010s) and space (within four quadrants, i.e., ‘the strong employment-oriented space’, ‘the weak employment-oriented space’, ‘the strong compensatory space’, and ‘the weak compensatory space’). Second, we develop a fivefold taxonomy of welfare state change characterised by: (1) retrenchment in Canada, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom; (2) abridged adaptation in Australia, Belgium, Finland, Norway, Spain and the United States; (3) minor expansionary adaptation in Greece, Italy, Japan, Portugal and Switzerland—where spending levels were low in the 1980; (4) adaptation with an equilibrium between the two movements in New Zealand and (5) strong expansionary adaptation in Austria, Denmark and France. Overall retrenchment and abridging adaptation prevail over expansionary adaptation—this is due to cutbacks of unemployment, family allowances and active labour market programmes not being counterbalanced by the expansion of childcare. Third, we critically interpret these changes, introducing the double movement concept into comparative social policy.

中文翻译：

---

作为双重运动的福利国家变革：21 个高收入国家的补偿性和就业导向政策的四个十年的紧缩和扩张

我们将 21 个高收入国家的福利国家变化概念化和衡量为一个由双重运动描绘的连续体，即补偿性政策和就业导向政策的综合变化。我们的双重运动框架将 Polanyi 的概念重新适应福利国家变革的背景。我们使用主成分分析和一个新指标来分析这四个十年的双重运动，该指标将 2015 年的支出与自 1980 年以来的最高和最低支出水平进行比较。我们以三种方式为文献做出贡献。首先，我们凭经验记录了补偿性和以就业为导向的政策支出的整体变化，随着时间的推移，后者变得更加突出。这种变化在 1990 年代更为明显，在 2000 年代更为明显，并且部分减少了经典政权的差异。PCA 产生了一个笛卡尔空间，每个国家在时间（1980 年代、1990 年代、2000 年代和 2010 年代）和空间（在四个象限内，即“强就业导向空间”、“弱就业导向空间”空间”、“强补偿空间”和“弱补偿空间”）。其次，我们制定了福利国家变革的五重分类法，其特点是：（1）加拿大、德国、爱尔兰、荷兰、瑞典和英国的紧缩；(2) 澳大利亚、比利时、芬兰、挪威、西班牙和美国的节略改编；(3) 希腊、意大利、日本、葡萄牙和瑞士的小幅扩张适应——这些国家 1980 年的支出水平较低；(4) 在新西兰的两个运动之间取得平衡的适应和 (5) 在奥地利、丹麦和法国的强扩张性适应。总体紧缩和缩减适应胜过扩张性适应——这是由于失业、家庭津贴和积极的劳动力市场计划的削减没有被扩大托儿所抵消。第三，我们批判性地解释这些变化，将双重运动概念引入比较社会政策。