Recognizing COVID-19 patients at a greater risk of mortality assists medical staff to identify who benefits from more serious care. We developed and validated prediction models for two-week mortality of inpatients with COVID-19 infection based on clinical predictors. A prospective cohort study was started in February 2020 and is still continuing. In total, 57,705 inpatients with both a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test and positive chest CT findings for COVID-19 were included. The outcome was mortality within 2 weeks of admission. Three prognostic models were developed for young, adult, and senior patients. Data from the capital province (Tehran) of Iran were used for validation, and data from all other provinces were used for development of the models. The model Young, was well-fitted to the data (p < 0.001, Nagelkerke R² = 0.697, C-statistics = 0.88) and the models Adult (p < 0.001, Nagelkerke R² = 0.340, C-statistics = 0.70) and Senior (p < 0.001, Nagelkerke R² = 0.208, C-statistics = 0.68) were also significant. Intubation, saturated O₂ < 93%, impaired consciousness, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and cancer treatment were major risk factors. Elderly people were at greater risk of mortality. Young patients with a history of blood hypertension, vomiting, and fever; and adults with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease had more mortality risk. Young people with myalgia; and adult patients with nausea, anorexia, and headache showed less risk of mortality than others.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 感染住院患者两周死亡率模型的开发和验证：一项大型前瞻性队列研究

识别死亡风险更高的 COVID-19 患者有助于医务人员确定谁从更严重的护理中受益。我们开发并验证了基于临床预测因子的 COVID-19 感染住院患者两周死亡率的预测模型。一项前瞻性队列研究于 2020 年 2 月开始，目前仍在继续。总共包括 57,705 名逆转录聚合酶链反应阳性和 COVID-19 胸部 CT 阳性结果的住院患者。结果是入院后 2 周内的死亡率。为年轻、成人和老年患者开发了三种预后模型。来自伊朗首都省（德黑兰）的数据用于验证，所有其他省份的数据用于模型开发。Young 模型非常适合数据（p  < 0.001, Nagelkerke R ²  = 0.697, C-statistics = 0.88) 和模型 Adult ( p  < 0.001, Nagelkerke R ²  = 0.340, C-statistics = 0.70) 和 Senior ( p  < 0.001, Nagelkerke R ²  = 0.208, C 统计量 = 0.68）也很显着。插管，饱和 O ₂ < 93%、意识受损、急性呼吸窘迫综合征和癌症治疗是主要危险因素。老年人的死亡风险更大。有高血压、呕吐、发热病史的年轻患者；患有糖尿病和心血管疾病的成年人死亡风险更高。患有肌痛的年轻人；与其他人相比，患有恶心、厌食和头痛的成年患者的死亡风险更低。