Objectives

To test for statistically significant change in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Vancouver, Canada, resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

Differential local Moran’s I is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Vancouver’s neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analysed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using ANOVA.

Results

At the neighbourhood level, all crime types have significant change during COVID, but not always at the city level. Different neighbourhoods have different changes in crime despite these changes appearing to be constant at the city level; local effects asre important to consider. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are able to predict these changes.

Conclusions

COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Vancouver, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic.

中文翻译：

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在一个名为灾难的世界中：COVID-19 对加拿大温哥华社区犯罪的影响

 目标

测试加拿大温哥华各社区犯罪率在统计上的显着变化，该变化是由于 COVID-19 大流行的自然实验中的社会限制造成的。

 方法

本地微分 Moran's I用于识别因 COVID-19 而导致温哥华各社区犯罪模式发生的统计显着变化。使用方差分析，利用社会解体理论构建的变量对这些变化进行分析。

 结果

在社区层面，所有犯罪类型在新冠疫情期间都发生了显着变化，但在城市层面并不总是如此。不同社区的犯罪率变化不同，尽管这些变化在城市层面似乎是恒定的；局部影响也是需要考虑的重要因素。代表社会解组织理论结构的变量能够预测这些变化。

 结论

COVID-19 改变了温哥华的犯罪模式，但最常见的是以理论上预期的方式。当地的变化对于了解大流行期间的犯罪至关重要。