Inductive locational models have been used for decades to map the probability of past settlements and identify the preferred environmental conditions for habitation. In this study we apply inductive modelling to compare the spatial structure of the settlement systems of hunter-fisher-gatherer groups (Narva and Combed Ware Culture) and early agrarian communities (Corded Ware Culture) in Stone Age Estonia.

We conceptualise settlement system formation as a point process and develop a first order point process model representing the environmental suitability for habitation based on geomorphological, soil and proximity to water. We use MaxEnt and the SDMTune machine learning framework for building the model, variable selection and estimation. The model is applied to the two communities and the effects of the variables and the resulting spatial patterns compared.

The statistical analysis indicated higher predictive power for hunter-fisher-gatherer sites, which might result from higher variety of agrarian activities, different socio-economic organization or effects of spatial structure of the landscape.

The spatial comparison indicates significant differences between the suitable environments for habitation between the two groups. While the hunter-fisher-gatherer population had an entirely shoreline connected settlement system the Corded Ware people inhabited the areas further away from water bodies. This resulted in significantly expanded potential space with differing spatial configuration for the incoming agrarian groups, possibly allowing tolerated immigration. The results also indicate there was a certain overlap of areas considered suitable habitation by both cultural groups, which might have caused a competition for land.

几十年来，归纳位置模型已被用于绘制过去定居点的概率图，并确定适合居住的首选环境条件。在这项研究中，我们应用归纳模型来比较石器时代爱沙尼亚狩猎-渔民-采集群体（纳尔瓦和精梳器文化）和早期农业社区（绳纹器文化）聚居系统的空间结构。

我们将聚落系统的形成概念化为一个点过程，并开发了一个一阶点过程模型，该模型代表了基于地貌、土壤和水体附近的居住环境适宜性。我们使用 MaxEnt 和 SDMTune 机器学习框架来构建模型、变量选择和估计。该模型应用于两个社区，并比较了变量的影响和由此产生的空间模式。

统计分析表明，狩猎-捕鱼-采集地点具有更高的预测能力，这可能是由于农业活动的多样性、不同的社会经济组织或景观空间结构的影响。

空间比较表明，两组之间适宜居住的环境存在显着差异。虽然狩猎-捕鱼-采集人口拥有完全与海岸线相连的定居系统，但绳纹器人居住在远离水体的地区。这导致潜在空间显着扩大，为传入的农业群体提供不同的空间配置，可能允许容忍移民。结果还表明，两个文化群体都认为适合居住的区域存在一定的重叠，这可能会导致土地竞争。