Oil palm is the major source of vegetable oil in the world and Indonesia is the main palm oil producing country. There is limited knowledge on the factors accounting for spatial and temporal variation in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) yield. Here we investigated relationships between weather and endogenous factors with FFB yield and its components (bunch number and individual bunch weight) using data collected from well-managed plantations in Indonesia. The database included many sites and years (total of 136 block-years observations), portraying a wide range of FFB yield and environmental conditions. We used average annual values to detect spatial variations in yield associated with weather, and monthly values to detect temporal yield variations in yield associated with weather and endogenous cycles. We found that water stress was the key factor accounting for the spatial and/or temporal variation in FFB yield. Our analysis also highlights the importance of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as a stress factor in oil palm, with this study being the first to demonstrate the negative relationship between yield and VPD and yield and water-use efficiency at the block level. Meteorological anomalies during the bunch failure, anthesis, and sex differentiation periods had the largest impact on yield. Besides climate factors, we confirmed the existence of endogenous yield cycles, with high-yield cycles typically followed by low-yield cycles and vice versa. Our findings extend current knowledge about sources of variation in oil palm yield, providing useful information to describe oil palm production environments and improve oil palm modeling and yield forecasting.

油棕是世界上植物油的主要来源，印度尼西亚是主要的棕榈油生产国。关于影响鲜果串 (FFB) 产量时空变化的因素的知识有限。在这里，我们使用从印度尼西亚管理良好的种植园收集的数据研究了天气和内源性因素与 FFB 产量及其组成部分（束数和单束重量）之间的关系。该数据库包括许多地点和年份（总共 136 个区块年观测），描绘了广泛的 FFB 产量和环境条件。我们使用年均值来检测与天气相关的产量的空间变化，并使用月度值来检测与天气和内生周期相关的产量的时间变化。我们发现水分胁迫是导致 FFB 产量空间和/或时间变化的关键因素。我们的分析还强调了蒸汽压不足 (VPD) 作为油棕压力因素的重要性，这项研究首次证明了产量与 VPD 以及产量和水分利用效率之间的负相关关系。束失败、开花和性别分化期间的气象异常对产量的影响最大。除了气候因素外，我们还证实了内生产量周期的存在，高产量周期通常紧随其后的是低产量周期和 这项研究首次证明了产量与 VPD 以及产量和水资源利用效率之间的负相关关系。束失败、开花和性别分化期间的气象异常对产量的影响最大。除了气候因素外，我们还证实了内生产量周期的存在，高产量周期通常紧随其后的是低产量周期和 这项研究首次证明了产量与 VPD 以及产量和水资源利用效率之间的负相关关系。束失败、开花和性别分化期间的气象异常对产量的影响最大。除了气候因素外，我们还证实了内生产量周期的存在，高产量周期通常紧随其后的是低产量周期和反之亦然。我们的发现扩展了目前关于油棕产量变化来源的知识，提供了有用的信息来描述油棕生产环境并改进油棕建模和产量预测。