Abstract

The challenge of this article is on deciding the two-decade-old controversy among Israeli intelligence scholars and practitioners over what caused the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising in October 2000. The question remains: Was it preplanned by the Palestinian Authority or a spontaneous response to the violence that ensued following the visit to the Temple Mount by Israeli opposition leader Sharon, which was seriously escalated by Israel’s excessive military response? Drawing on a theoretical framework of two types of strategic surprises, the article clarifies the controversy and explains the outbreak of what became a long and bloody Israeli–Palestinian confrontation.

摘要

这篇文章的挑战是要解决以色列情报学者和从业者之间关于 2000 年 10 月巴勒斯坦起义爆发原因的长达两个十年的争论。问题仍然存在：它是由巴勒斯坦权力机构预先计划好的还是自发反应以色列反对派领导人沙龙访问圣殿山后发生的暴力事件，由于以色列过度的军​​事反应而严重升级？文章借鉴了两种战略意外的理论框架，澄清了争议，并解释了以色列与巴勒斯坦之间长期血腥对抗的爆发。