Two contrasting perspectives can be identified in the current literature on the relationship between European integration and the welfare state. On the one hand, the race to the bottom thesis presumes that welfare spending will be reduced to the lowest common denominator. On the other hand, the upward convergence thesis suggests that European integration supports and strengthens the capacities of national welfare states. This suggests that the consequences of European integration for national social protection systems are ambiguous. The current study contributes to this debate, by investigating the relationship between European integration and the welfare state from the perspective of public opinion. Do European citizens envision a race to the bottom or an upward convergence in social protection, and why so? Analysing data from the European Social Survey in 18 EU countries, the article reveals that the material benefits brought by national and supranational institutions, jointly shape citizens' expectations about the EU–welfare nexus, although in opposite directions. Generous national welfare provision fuels expectations that European integration fosters a race to the bottom for social protection levels, while higher receipts from EU Structural Fund programs and individual trust in EU institutions raise expectations of the EU as a catalyst of upward convergence in social standards. The implications of these findings for social policymaking in multilevel governance regimes are discussed.

中文翻译：

---

公民对多层次治理中社会保护的期望：国家机构与超国家机构之间的相互作用

在当前关于欧洲一体化与福利国家之间关系的文献中，可以发现两种截然不同的观点。一方面，逐底竞争理论假定福利支出将减少到最低公分母。另一方面，向上趋同理论表明欧洲一体化支持并加强了国家福利国家的能力。这表明欧洲一体化对国家社会保护体系的影响是模棱两可的。目前的研究通过从公众舆论的角度调查欧洲一体化与福利国家之间的关系，为这场辩论做出了贡献。欧洲公民是否设想在社会保护方面进行一场逐底竞争或向上趋同？为什么会这样？文章分析了 18 个欧盟国家的欧洲社会调查数据，发现国家和超国家机构带来的物质利益共同塑造了公民对欧盟福利关系的期望，尽管方向相反。慷慨的国家福利条款助长了人们对欧洲一体化促进社会保护水平逐底竞争的预期，而欧盟结构基金计划的更高收入和个人对欧盟机构的信任提高了人们对欧盟作为社会标准向上趋同催化剂的预期。讨论了这些发现对多层次治理制度中社会决策的影响。共同塑造公民对欧盟福利关系的期望，尽管方向相反。慷慨的国家福利条款助长了人们对欧洲一体化促进社会保护水平逐底竞争的预期，而欧盟结构基金计划的更高收入和个人对欧盟机构的信任提高了人们对欧盟作为社会标准向上趋同催化剂的预期。讨论了这些发现对多层次治理制度中社会决策的影响。共同塑造公民对欧盟福利关系的期望，尽管方向相反。慷慨的国家福利条款助长了人们对欧洲一体化促进社会保护水平逐底竞争的预期，而欧盟结构基金计划的更高收入和个人对欧盟机构的信任提高了人们对欧盟作为社会标准向上趋同催化剂的预期。讨论了这些发现对多层次治理制度中社会决策的影响。而来自欧盟结构基金计划的更高收入和个人对欧盟机构的信任提高了人们对欧盟作为社会标准向上趋同催化剂的期望。讨论了这些发现对多层次治理制度中社会决策的影响。而来自欧盟结构基金计划的更高收入和个人对欧盟机构的信任提高了人们对欧盟作为社会标准向上趋同催化剂的期望。讨论了这些发现对多层次治理制度中社会决策的影响。