1. Incidence of immigration in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) was inferred with rules of thumb and numerical thresholds contrasting closed populations (residents >> migrants) versus populations subjected to major immigration event, based on attributes of daily time series of abundance at light traps (abundance, statistical mode, sex ratio and protandry level). The data set included time series with known migration event (Bas St-Laurent, QC, 2013), which were used to calibrate numerical thresholds associated with immigration.
2. The study site on west coast of Newfoundland provided a natural laboratory to infer long-range immigration due to geographic isolation from the mainland, proximity to the coast and low population density at onset of the study. Time series between 2014 and 2016 exhibited trends consistent with scenario of closed population, including low numbers of budworms, limited variation in day-to-day abundance and strong level of protandry (males fly seasonally earlier than females).
3. Time series with candidate major immigration event (Bas St-Laurent 2013, Sally's Cove 2017, 2018) displayed specific combinations of parameters, including: (a) sharp increment (>one order of magnitude) in abundance of both males and females from one day to the next (statistical mode, approximately corresponding to timing of migration); (b) pure (100%) convergence of pulse detection interval (post-immigration period when migrants with nonzero survival rate are collected at light traps) across traps for males and females and (c) overall absence of protandrous flight.
4. Parameters related to immigration thresholds highlighted that females are more likely to migrate than males, as indicated by increased ratio of females per male during pulse detection interval. Aerial collection of adult spruce budworms with helikite in 2019 confirmed the preponderance of females among true migrants.

中文翻译：

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当我看到它时我就知道了：云杉芽虫的发生率、时间和移民强度

1. 根据光照条件下每日丰度时间序列的属性，根据经验法则和数值阈值，将封闭种群（居民 >> 移民）与遭受重大移民事件的种群进行对比，推断出云杉budworm Choristoneura fumiferana （鳞翅目：Tortricidae）的移民发生率陷阱（丰度、统计模式、性别比例和原始水平）。该数据集包括具有已知迁移事件的时间序列 (Bas St-Laurent, QC, 2013)，用于校准与移民相关的数值阈值。
2. 纽芬兰西海岸的研究地点提供了一个自然实验室来推断由于与大陆的地理隔离、靠近海岸和研究开始时人口密度低而导致的远程移民。2014 年至 2016 年之间的时间序列显示出与封闭种群情景一致的趋势，包括芽虫数量少、日常丰度变化有限和前驱水平高（雄性比雌性早于季节性飞行）。
3. 具有候选主要移民事件（Bas St-Laurent 2013、Sally's Cove 2017、2018）的时间序列显示了特定的参数组合，包括：（a）从一天开始，男性和女性的数量急剧增加（> 一个数量级）到下一个（统计模式，大致对应迁移时间）；(b) 男性和女性的陷阱之间脉冲检测间隔的纯 (100%) 收敛（移民后在光陷阱处收集具有非零存活率的移民的时期）和 (c) 总体没有前额飞行。
4. 与移民阈值相关的参数突出表明，女性比男性更有可能迁移，如脉冲检测间隔期间女性/男性的比例增加所示。2019 年空中采集的云杉成虫和云杉木虱证实了雌性在真正迁徙者中的优势。