The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus,Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

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The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102243
Jia Rui ₁ , Qiupeng Wang ₂ , Jinlong Lv ₃ , Bin Zhao ₄ , Qingqing Hu ₅ , Heng Du ₆ , Wenfeng Gong ₇ , Zeyu Zhao ₁ , Jingwen Xu ₁ , Yuanzhao Zhu ₁ , Xingchun Liu ₁ , Yao Wang ₁ , Meng Yang ₁ , Li Luo ₁ , Qiuping Chen ₈ , Benhua Zhao ₁ , Yanhua Su ₁ , Jing-An Cui ₃ , Tianmu Chen ₁

Affiliation

State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, 361102, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, 361102, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China; School of Journalism and Communication, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, People's Republic of China.
Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 102616, People's Republic of China.
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Laboratory Department, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.
Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, 201 Presidents Circle, Salt Lake City, 84112, Utah, USA.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Beijing, 100027, People's Republic of China.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, 98103, WA, USA.
Medical Insurance Office, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.

Background

In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility.

Methods

Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Data on reported MERS cases in the two countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. Thereafter, the next generation matrix method was employed to derive the equation for the basic reproduction number (R₀), and the model fitting procedure was adopted to calculate the R₀ values corresponding to these different countries.

Results

In South Korea, ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission was identified as the main mode of MERS transmission in healthcare settings, while in Saudi Arabia, in addition to ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission, ‘Host-to-Host’ and ‘Host-to-Person’ transmission also occurred under certain scenarios, with camels being the main host. Further, the fitting results showed that the SEIARD model and MMDM fitted the data well. The mean R₀ value was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0–28.02) for MERS in South Korea, and for MERS in Saudi Arabia, it was 1.15 and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.86–1.44) for the ‘Person-to-Person’ and ‘Camel-to-Camel’ transmission routes, respectively.

Conclusions

The SEIARD and MMDM model can be used to simulate the transmission of MERS in different countries. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, the transmissibility of MERS was almost the same among hosts (camels) and humans.

中文翻译：

中东呼吸综合症冠状病毒的传播动态

背景

在这项研究中，我们旨在量化中东呼吸综合征（MERS）不同传播途径的贡献并确定其传播能力。

方法

根据MERS在不同国家的自然史和传播特征，建立了易感-暴露-症状-无症状-恢复/死亡（SEIARD）模型和多途径动态模型（MMDM）。分别采用SEIARD模型和MMDM模拟韩国和沙特阿拉伯的MERS。两国报告的中东呼吸综合征病例数据来自世界卫生组织。此后，采用下一代矩阵法推导了基本再生数（ R ₀ ）的方程，并采用模型拟合程序计算出这些不同国家对应的R ₀值。

结果

在韩国，“人对人”传播被确定为医疗机构中 MERS 传播的主要方式，而在沙特阿拉伯，除了“人对人”传播外，“主机对主机”传播和在某些情况下也会发生“宿主到人”的传播，其中骆驼是主要宿主。进一步拟合结果表明SEIARD模型和MMDM对数据拟合良好。韩国 MERS 的平均R ₀值为 8.59（95% 置信区间 [CI]：0–28.02），沙特阿拉伯 MERS 的平均 R 0 值为 1.15 和 1.02（95% CI：0.86–1.44）。分别是“人对人”和“骆驼对骆驼”的传播途径。