Diffusion of organic farming among Dutch pig farmers: An agent-based model,Agricultural Systems

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Diffusion of organic farming among Dutch pig farmers: An agent-based model
Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103336
Floor H.W. Ambrosius ₁ , Mark R. Kramer ₁ , Alisa Spiegel _{2,

3} , Eddie A.M. Bokkers ₄ , Bettina B. Bock ₅ , Gert Jan Hofstede _{1,

6}

Affiliation

CONTEXT

Organic farming is an alternative for conventional farming practices with the potential to decrease negative externalities. Yet, in the Netherlands there has been a mismatch between societal preferences and farmer behaviour: despite increasing demand for organic pork meat, farmers feel peer pressure to remain conventional. Therefore, to understand diffusion of organic farming, one needs to consider social dynamics between farmers.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this research is to gain insight in the factors contributing to the diffusion of organic farming, by considering social interaction mechanisms, market price dynamics, and heterogeneity in farming styles.

METHODS

We built an agent-based model of pig farmers differing in farm size and farming style (idealists, craftsmen and entrepreneurs) in a social-spatial network. They can convert from conventional to organic farming and back. Farmers can influence one another when they interact. This social influence is based on the social identity approach: Farmers who are similar in, among others, farming style converge in attitudes, while dissimilar farmers diverge in attitudes. The conventional meat price is volatile. The organic meat price fluctuates in accordance with supply. An exploratory analysis was performed on social influence parameters. Three social influence scenarios on the likelihood for influence in interaction were selected for local sensitivity analysis. The model run replicated 15 years and started with 16 organic farmers and 1958 conventional farmers. Model results were discussed with Dutch organic pork sector experts.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The results of the exploratory analysis are threefold. An increase in the likelihood of influence in interaction increases the number of organic farmers from 44 to 121 and diversifies the organic farmers from 98% idealists to 31% idealists, 49% craftsmen and 20% entrepreneurs. The most influential factor on diffusion of organic farming is the demand for organic pork meat. New entrants stimulate organic farming through a different farming style than their predecessor. Expert discussion on model results confirmed the importance of consumer demand and new entrants for understanding diffusion.

SIGNIFICANCE

The social identity approach serves as a helpful framework to capture empirical and sociological knowledge. It reveals that farming styles of entrants contribute to the diversification of farming practices overall. For researchers and policy makers wishing to stimulate alternative farming practices, it is of interest to better understand this mechanism. In addition, we showed that those wishing to understand innovation in farming practices should look beyond farmer decision-making, by including market dynamics through consumer demand.

中文翻译：

荷兰养猪户中有机农业的传播：基于代理的模型

语境

有机农业是传统农业实践的替代方案，具有减少负面外部性的潜力。然而，在荷兰，社会偏好与农民行为之间存在不匹配：尽管对有机猪肉的需求不断增加，但农民仍感到要保持传统的同辈压力。因此，要了解有机农业的传播，需要考虑农民之间的社会动态。

客观的

本研究的目的是通过考虑社会互动机制、市场价格动态和耕作方式的异质性，深入了解促进有机农业扩散的因素。

方法

我们在社会空间网络中建立了一个基于代理的养猪户模型，该模型的农场规模和养殖方式不同（理想主义者、工匠和企业家）。他们可以从传统农业转变为有机农业，然后再返回。农民在互动时可以相互影响。这种社会影响基于社会认同方法：在农作方式等方面相似的农民在态度上趋同，而不同的农民在态度上有所不同。传统肉类价格波动较大。有机肉价格随供应量波动。对社会影响参数进行了探索性分析。选择了三种关于交互影响可能性的社会影响情景进行局部敏感性分析。该模型运行了 15 年，从 16 名有机农民和 1958 名常规农民开始。模型结果与荷兰有机猪肉行业专家进行了讨论。

结果与结论

探索性分析的结果是三重的。互动影响可能性的增加使有机农民的数量从 44 人增加到 121 人，并使有机农民从 98% 的理想主义者增加到 31% 的理想主义者、49% 的工匠和 20% 的企业家。对有机农业扩散影响最大的因素是对有机猪肉的需求。新进入者通过与前任不同的耕作方式来刺激有机耕作。关于模型结果的专家讨论证实了消费者需求和新进入者对于理解传播的重要性。