BACKGROUND
Migration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures.

OBJECTIVE
This paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, working-age population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced.

METHODS
We use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection.

RESULTS
Although migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency.

CONCLUSIONS
While both the south and east provide large demographic subsidies of working-age people to the EU’s west, the south is less prepared to cope with the losses due to an already older population, lower labour force participation, and lower education levels.



中文翻译：

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欧盟宏观区域的移民和人口差异，展望 2060 年（Michaela Potančoková、Marcin Jan Stonawski、Nicholas Gailey）

背景
移民已成为欧盟最重要的政策领域之一。作为回应，欧盟委员会成立了一个研究小组，其任务是调查一系列可能的人口未来。

目标
本文探讨了移民对欧盟东部、南部和西部地区的人口影响，使用不同的情景来了解人口规模、工作年龄人口、教育构成和总年龄依赖可能受到的影响程度。

方法
我们使用确定性的队列成分预测模型，该模型 (a) 包括提高人口受教育程度和 (b) 明确考虑欧盟成员国 (MS) 之间的迁移以及欧盟 MS 与世界其他地区之间的迁移。围绕中等假设预测开发了八个程式化的假设情景。

结果
尽管移民对总人口和工作年龄人口规模有很大影响，但欧盟人口将继续老龄化，并且无论如何都会出现年龄依赖性上升。尽管 MS 东部的许多人口减少，但该地区现在并且应该继续处于比南部更好的位置，并且在年龄依赖性方面与西部持平。

结论
虽然南部和东部都为欧盟西部的工作年龄人口提供了大量人口补贴，但由于人口老龄化、劳动力参与率较低和教育水平较低，南部没有准备好应对这些损失。