Uncertain chronologies of archaeological sites outside the geographic area of secure tree-ring dating in the Southwestern U.S. has hindered wider knowledge about climate challenges and migration in the past. Montezuma Castle cliff dwelling in central Arizona is believed to have been founded by migrants sometime between CE 1100–1300, but comparison with dated events at annual to decadal resolution has been impossible. New ¹⁴C dates – including nine wiggle-matched tree-ring segments – indicate that the site was founded and reoccupied precisely during two major droughts in the twelfth and thirteenth centuries. The six highest resolution wiggle-matched elements date to cal. CE 1020–1050, 1083–1155, 1094–1159, 1094–1163, 1133–1169, and 1280–1302 (95.4% posterior density). When these dates are modeled with other samples that directly date construction, it is shown that the edifice was erected between 1125 and 1173 with a late phase of renovation occurring between 1280 and 1305. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the inclusion of wiggle-matched tree-ring segments is crucial to achieving this level of precision, and that there is a lower limit for the number and quality of wiggle-matches for the model to retain its fidelity. We suggest that some cultural shifts in the Verde Valley – traditionally attributed to the arrival of northern groups after about 1250 – began up to a century prior to this time, and that cliff dwellings were constructed as an adaptation to insecurities related to climate stress.

美国西南部安全树木年轮测年地理区域之外的考古遗址年代学不确定，阻碍了过去对气候挑战和移民的更广泛了解。亚利桑那州中部的蒙特祖玛城堡悬崖住宅被认为是由移民在公元 1100 年至 1300 年之间的某个时间建立的，但无法与每年到十年决议的过时事件进行比较。新的¹⁴ C 日期——包括九个摆动匹配的树轮节段——表明该遗址是在 12 和 13 世纪的两次主要干旱期间建立和重新占领的。六个最高分辨率的摆动匹配元素可追溯到校准。CE 1020 – 1050 , 1083 – 1155, 1094 –1159 1094 - 1163，1133 - 1169，和1280 - 1302（95.4％后验密度）。当这些日期与其他直接确定建造日期的样本一起建模时，表明该建筑物建于1125 年至1173 年之间，后期翻新发生在1280 年至1305 年之间. 敏感性分析表明，包含摆动匹配的树木年轮段对于实现这种精度水平至关重要，并且模型保持其保真度的摆动匹配的数量和质量存在下限。我们认为佛得角河谷的一些文化转变——传统上归因于大约 1250 年之后北方群体的到来——开始于这个时间之前的一个世纪，并且建造悬崖住宅是为了适应与气候压力相关的不安全感。