Corrosion degradation is one of the main causations of natural gas pipeline failure, which poses a severe threat to human life, assets, and the environment. This paper develops a methodology to assess the risk of corrosion-induced natural gas pipeline accidents considering the uncertainties in incident escalations. This approach can capture both the uncertainties in corrosion failure likelihood and the impact of pipeline leak accidents. A pair of limit state functions are established to estimate the corrosion failure probability of the pipeline. The pipeline accident from gas release to vapor cloud explosion (VCE) is modelled using empirical models. Subsequently, the uncertainties in gas pipeline corrosion failure accidents, reflected by some uncertain parameters, e.g., basic pipeline parameters, corrosion defect and environmental conditions et al., are identified. These identified parameters are discretized and described using a set of probability density functions. Eventually, Monte Carlo (MC) method is utilized to solve the established models. Besides, sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of uncertain parameters on the likelihood and impact of a pipeline accident. A practical case is used to test the methodology, proving a valuable tool for risk assessment of corrosion-induced natural gas pipeline accidents.

腐蚀退化是天然气管道故障的主要原因之一，对人类生命、财产和环境构成严重威胁。考虑到事故升级的不确定性，本文开发了一种评估腐蚀引起的天然气管道事故风险的方法。这种方法可以捕捉腐蚀失效可能性的不确定性和管道泄漏事故的影响。建立了一对极限状态函数来估计管道的腐蚀失效概率。从气体泄漏到蒸汽云爆炸 (VCE) 的管道事故使用经验模型进行建模。随后，天然气管道腐蚀失效事故的不确定性，表现为管道基本参数、腐蚀缺陷、环境条件等一些不确定参数。，被识别。这些识别的参数使用一组概率密度函数进行离散化和描述。最后，利用蒙特卡罗（MC）方法对建立的模型进行求解。此外，还进行了敏感性分析，以研究不确定参数对管道事故的可能性和影响的影响。一个实际案例用于测试该方法，证明是对腐蚀引起的天然气管道事故进行风险评估的宝贵工具。