METHODOLOGICAL ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL MODELLING of chronological data have enabled fresh perspectives of the past to be gained from the analysis of large numbers of radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dates. A new analysis of radiocarbon dates associated with craftworking activities — handicrafts like antler-working or wood-working and metalworking technologies — from Irish sites of early medieval date is presented using a bootstrapped kernel density estimation (KDE) method. These models are used to assess whether the arrival of urbanism to Ireland in the 10th century brought about a major change to craftworking traditions, and to build a new and nuanced understanding of long-term trends at both secular and ecclesiastical sites of the period. These are shown to have differed, especially in the 8th century, at a crucial point in time. The findings add to the emerging narrative of demographic ‘decline’ from similar data-driven investigations of Ireland’s early medieval past, which pinpoint the beginning of the 8th century as a seminal moment of change. Crucially, however, they also reveal a more complex pattern of change involving a combination of processes, independent of urban development, but related to demographics, socio-economic re-organisation, changing settlement patterns, and the influence of the Church.

年代数据统计建模的方法学进步使我们能够从大量放射性碳的分析中获得对过去的全新视角（¹⁴C) 日期。使用自举核密度估计 (KDE) 方法对来自中世纪早期爱尔兰遗址的手工艺品（如鹿角加工或木工和金属加工技术等手工艺品）的放射性碳日期进行了新的分析。这些模型用于评估 10 世纪爱尔兰城市主义的到来是否给手工艺传统带来了重大变化，并建立了对这一时期世俗和教会场所的长期趋势的新的、细致入微的理解。事实证明，这些在关键的时间点有所不同，尤其是在 8 世纪。这些发现增加了对爱尔兰中世纪早期历史的类似数据驱动调查中出现的人口“下降”的叙述，它指出 8 世纪的开始是变革的开创性时刻。然而，至关重要的是，它们也揭示了一种更复杂的变化模式，涉及一系列过程的组合，独立于城市发展，但与人口统计、社会经济重组、不断变化的定居模式和教会的影响有关。